Germany's economy has contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024, with inflation-adjusted GDP shrinking by 0.2% following a 0.3% drop in 2023. This marks the first instance of back-to-back annual negative growth since the early 2000s, raising concerns about the long-term stability of the economy [a0b3dbbd].
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for Germany in 2025, cutting it from 1.3% to 0.8%. This adjustment is attributed to potential U.S. trade policies and domestic political uncertainties, including an upcoming snap election in February 2025, which adds to the economic uncertainty [a0b3dbbd].
Industrial output fell by 3% year on year, while the services sector managed a modest growth of 0.8%. Private consumption increased by only 0.3%, and consumer sentiment remains low, with the consumer sentiment index at minus 21.3 points. Unemployment has also risen to 6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [a0b3dbbd].
In response to these economic challenges, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has proposed a debt-financed investment fund aimed at revitalizing the economy. This initiative, dubbed the 'Germany Fund,' is designed to modernize infrastructure and provide a 10% investment premium for companies, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporations, and start-ups [a0b3dbbd].
The Ifo Institute recently downgraded its growth outlook to zero for 2024, attributing this stagnation to low investment, declining productivity, and an aging population. Timo Wollmershaeuser from the Ifo Institute noted that the shift towards a service-oriented economy has further complicated recovery efforts [a0b3dbbd].
In September 2024, the Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 85.4, signaling a decline in business sentiment. Carsten Brzeski from ING described Germany as the growth laggard of the Eurozone, with the production PMI remaining in contraction for over two years. This downturn is exacerbated by the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and decreasing demand from China [a0b3dbbd].
The economic contraction has led to a surge in bankruptcies, with approximately 22,400 companies filing for bankruptcy in 2024, marking a 24.3% increase from the previous year and the highest level since 2015. Major corporations such as Volkswagen and ZF Group have announced significant job cuts, with ZF planning to reduce its workforce by 11,000 to 14,000 by 2028 [a0b3dbbd].
Germany's public investment has consistently fallen below the EU average, contributing to the economic malaise. Conservative fiscal policies have resulted in low public investment, which was only 2.6% of GDP in 2023. Political disagreements have further hindered progress on key policies aimed at revitalizing the economy [a0b3dbbd].
Habeck emphasized the need for reduced bureaucracy and subsidies for climate protection as part of his plan to stimulate growth. However, the IMF has downgraded Germany's economic forecasts, highlighting a lack of budgetary leeway for investment, which complicates the implementation of such initiatives [a0b3dbbd].
The manufacturing sector, a crucial component of the German economy, has faced substantial declines, with industrial production contracting by 16% since 2017. Notably, automobile production has plummeted by 28% during this period [a0b3dbbd]. The Ifo Institute's export expectations index has also declined, indicating that German exporters are struggling to capitalize on growth in other European markets [a0b3dbbd].
In contrast, Poland's economy has shown resilience, growing by 2% in the first quarter of 2024, highlighting the stark differences in economic performance within the region. This divergence raises concerns about the broader Eurozone economic outlook as Germany's stagnation poses risks to regional stability [a0b3dbbd].
Looking ahead, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD party has faced setbacks, including losses in the June European Parliament elections. The draft budget for 2025 includes 49 measures aimed at stimulating growth, with a record 57 billion euros allocated for federal investment. However, the IMF warns that Germany's growth will lag behind that of the US, UK, and France over the next five years [a0b3dbbd].
As these economic challenges unfold, the focus will shift to how they influence future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the potential for interest rate adjustments in response to the differing economic conditions across member states. Despite the current challenges, Brzeski predicts a slight improvement in the Ifo indicator by year-end, suggesting that there may be some hope for recovery [a0b3dbbd].