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Political Turmoil: Investigations Loom Over Yoon and First Lady

2024-12-22 05:54:09.315000

On December 14, 2024, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, following his controversial declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, which lasted for six hours. The impeachment was passed with 204 votes in favor and 85 against, marking a significant political shift in the country [7c9dc4c9]. As a result, Yoon has been suspended from his duties until the Constitutional Court makes a ruling on the impeachment, which has up to 180 days to decide [7c9dc4c9]. In the interim, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has stepped in as the acting president, bringing over three decades of government experience to the role [5262550c]. Han, 75, is a career technocrat with a Harvard doctorate in economics and has served under five presidents, including roles as ambassador to the U.S. and finance minister. His moderate and rational approach is expected to be crucial during this tumultuous period [f3c25c36].

On December 15, 2024, Acting President Han Duck-soo spoke with U.S. President Joe Biden, pledging to maintain and develop the South Korea-U.S. alliance in light of the impeachment. Han emphasized the importance of adhering to the Constitution and law in state affairs and discussed the ongoing North Korean nuclear threat. Biden expressed his trust in South Korea's democracy and reaffirmed the 'ironclad' alliance, committing to strengthen cooperation with South Korea and Japan [a7cebb86].

In a public statement following his impeachment, President Yoon vowed to persevere, describing the impeachment as a temporary setback. He expressed frustration over its potential impact on his leadership and the country's stability [d49de314]. A Bloomberg survey indicated that despite the political turmoil, including the martial law declaration, South Korea's economic growth and credit rating in 2025 are unlikely to be significantly affected. However, the situation may dampen investor sentiment and increase the won-dollar exchange rate [d49de314].

The political crisis has raised significant concerns about South Korea's diplomatic and security posture, particularly regarding North Korea. Analysts suggest that while Yoon's impeachment may clarify U.S. engagement with South Korea, it also raises alarms about potential North Korean aggression, as a perceived weak government could provoke further threats from the North [b634b881]. Recent reports indicate that Yoon and former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun had plans that could have escalated tensions into a 'limited war' with North Korea. This aggressive military policy, which included the Kill Chain Doctrine initiated in July 2023, has been underscored by over 200 days of U.S.-ROK military exercises throughout 2023 [191382cd]. North Korea's renouncement of peaceful reunification in December 2023, coupled with drone incursions and balloon incidents, has further heightened tensions in the region [191382cd].

The protests that preceded the impeachment saw around 200,000 demonstrators calling for Yoon's ouster, reflecting widespread discontent with his administration [7c9dc4c9]. Yoon has vowed to fight the impeachment, claiming that it undermines democracy, while the opposition Democratic Party has hailed the vote as a victory for democratic principles [7c9dc4c9]. Han Duck-soo's leadership is seen as a stabilizing factor during this tumultuous period, and his extensive experience is expected to be crucial in navigating the challenges posed by North Korea and the economic difficulties facing the nation, which has seen a GDP growth rate of only 1.4% last year [a06c0899]. However, the ongoing political crisis complicates South Korea's diplomatic efforts, especially with the incoming U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump [b634b881].

As political tensions escalate, Kweon Seong-dong, the acting chief of the People Power Party (PPP), criticized the Democratic Party (DP) for pursuing special counsel investigations into President Yoon and First Lady Kim Keon-hee. He alleged that the DP aims to paralyze state affairs, a statement made during a press conference on December 22, 2024. Two bills for special probes into Yoon's martial law attempts and allegations against the First Lady are pending approval from Acting President Han Duck-soo. Kweon expressed concerns that multiple investigations would lead to excessive competition among authorities, and PPP lawmakers are set to decide this week whether to recommend a veto of the bills [abb36aae].

Experts have noted that while Yoon's impeachment may ease some political uncertainty, it does not eliminate the risks associated with North Korea potentially exploiting South Korea's political turmoil. Observers emphasize the need for close security coordination with the U.S. to address these challenges effectively [867bfe02]. Allegations have emerged regarding a plot to restart the Korean War, including potential assassination attempts against political figures. Concerns were raised by lawmaker Kim Byung-joo about Special Forces being prepared to arrest lawmakers during the coup [191382cd]. Furthermore, Kim Yong-hyun attempted suicide while in custody on December 10, raising questions about the extent of the crisis [191382cd].

The Constitutional Court's decision on Yoon's impeachment will be pivotal, as a removal from office would necessitate a presidential election within 60 days. If Han were to face impeachment himself, the finance minister would succeed him [5262550c]. As the situation unfolds, the working class is rallying for a general strike to demand accountability and reform, reflecting a broader desire for change amidst systemic corruption and economic challenges [6b5349e6]. The Democratic Party has filed a complaint against Han regarding his failure to prevent Yoon's martial law attempt, further complicating the political landscape [f3c25c36]. Meanwhile, South Korea's stock market has rebounded from losses due to the martial law declaration, with the KOSPI and KOSDAQ recovering to late November levels, indicating that analysts believe the worst of the five-month losing streak is over, supported by institutional investors and expected global interest rate cuts [d49de314]. The political landscape remains precarious, with increasing pressure from both the public and opposition parties for a more transparent and effective government [9e814c38].

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