Vietnam's state budget revenue for the first nine months of the year was estimated to be over VNÄ1.2 quadrillion (US$50.8 billion), marking an 8.3% decrease compared to the previous year. The domestic revenue managed by the tax authorities in September reached VNÄ75.6 trillion, bringing the nine-month total to over VNÄ1 quadrillion, a 3.2% decrease year-on-year. To address the challenges faced in the final quarter, the sector will focus on increasing state budget collection, ensuring accurate and timely collection, and enhancing the recovery of overdue debts [3ea1bd3f]. Vietnamese state-owned enterprises invested over US$6.6 billion in foreign ventures in 2022, while Vietnamese businesses prioritize diversifying their supply sources [d89b28a1]. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2023 to 4.7% from the previous 4.4% [1dd69d68].
Businesses in Vietnam are hoping for a recovery in 2024, but concerns remain about low demand both domestically and internationally. The owner of a wood processing firm expressed that while there are currently enough orders to work through this month, the market is still frozen and global demand is decreasing. Representatives from business associations in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi also shared similar sentiments, stating that orders and demand are still at a very low level. The European Business Association in Vietnam reported that the Business Confidence Index increased slightly in the third quarter but remained below the average threshold, indicating a lack of optimism among European companies operating in Vietnam. Despite the challenges, business leaders are hopeful for improvement in 2024, with expectations of a new cycle in the housing market and positive outcomes in the tourism industry due to new policies such as the easing of visa rules [12081f07].
China suffered direct economic losses of 308.29 billion yuan ($42 billion) over the first nine months of 2023, the government said, from natural disasters such as torrential rains, deadly landslides, freakish hailstorms and a string of typhoons. Officials said 499 people were reported dead and missing in natural disasters during the nine-month period, with more than 89 million affected, while over 2.75 million had to be evacuated and resettled. China's crops of rice, soy and corn were also battered, triggering larger inflation worries at a time when the government is battling to stabilize the economy [f0bc252d].
In the first 10 months of 2023, 142,700 people in Ho Chi Minh City applied for unemployment benefits, up 11% year-on-year. The average unemployment cash support was VND5.5 million (US$224), and the average time an applicant received this sum was six months. The layoff wave has been increasing non-stop since around April and will likely continue. The number of workers in HCMC dropped 2.5% year-on-year, with major declines in leather production, metal and mineral mining, and water treatment. Over half of the laid-off people have no degrees, and 36% of them have a university degree. Most of them are aged 25-40 [6c22be39].
China's job market continues to face challenges, with the average monthly salary in 38 major Chinese cities dropping by 1.3% in Q4 2023, the biggest quarterly drop since 2016. The decline in wages is attributed to regulatory crackdowns, strained public finances, and weak domestic and overseas demand. Entry-level salaries in new-economy sectors, including electric vehicles, batteries, and solar and wind power, have also been falling. The high youth unemployment rate and low consumer confidence further contribute to the challenging economic conditions. The pressure on the job market is expected to worsen in 2024, with no apparent solution in sight. Analysts are calling for more aggressive stimulus measures, including property-purchasing relaxation and interest rate cuts. The number of newly established HR and headhunting companies in China has significantly decreased, and prospective employees are increasingly seeking flexible and gig work. A record-high 11.79 million college students are expected to graduate this year, adding to the crowded job market. Chinese companies going global have also led to more jobseekers looking for work abroad [292b4f11] [8abd41bc].