As of November 11, 2024, US crude oil exports to China have shown a notable rebound, reaching approximately 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2024, a significant increase from a low of 24,000 bpd in August 2024. This marks the highest export levels since February 2020, according to Kpler [7fb53174]. However, despite this rebound, China's overall crude oil imports fell by 9% in October 2024, continuing a troubling six-month trend of year-over-year declines [7fb53174].
This decline in imports comes at a time when China is grappling with sluggish economic growth, which was reported at 4.7% for the third quarter of 2024, below the expected 5% [b96e8798]. The Chinese government has implemented significant economic stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and liquidity support, to bolster its economy, particularly focusing on the struggling property sector [b7c712d9]. Despite these efforts, analysts remain skeptical about their impact on oil demand, as the country's shift towards less energy-intensive sectors continues to influence consumption patterns [b7c712d9].
Moreover, Kpler's analysis indicates a pessimistic outlook for future US crude exports to China, attributing this to weak fuel demand and declining refinery profits within the country [7fb53174]. The combination of these factors suggests that while the recent uptick in exports is encouraging, the broader context of China's economic challenges may limit sustained growth in oil imports.
In the global oil market, prices have been under pressure, with Brent trading around $73 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $69, reflecting a $6 drop in September [b96e8798]. The ongoing production cuts by OPEC and its allies, which are set to continue until the end of 2025, aim to stabilize prices amid fluctuating demand [b96e8798].
As the situation evolves, the interplay between US crude exports, China's economic recovery, and global oil supply dynamics will be crucial in determining future market trends [b96e8798].