Copper prices have recently shown signs of recovery, inching up by 0.5% to $9,114.50 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) as of November 19, 2024. This increase follows a period of volatility influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar, which had previously reached a one-year high, and ongoing concerns regarding China's slowing economic growth. The December copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a rise of 0.6%, reaching 74,250 yuan. However, the market remains cautious due to potential tariffs that former President Trump plans to impose, which could exceed 60% on Chinese imports. These tariff threats add to the existing worries about China's economic outlook, which has been impacting demand for copper and other metals. Analysts like Ed Meir predict that LME copper prices will range between $8,900 and $9,200 over the next six weeks, with a downside forecast for next year at $8,000 and an upside potential of $10,500. Additionally, China is expected to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, further complicating market dynamics. The recent fluctuations in copper prices are also tied to production disruptions, including a fire at Freeport-McMoRan's Manyar smelter, which has delayed production until early 2025. This situation has led to projections of a copper deficit of 52,000 metric tons for 2024, escalating to 848,000 metric tons in 2025. Despite these challenges, the demand for copper remains robust, particularly due to the rise in electric vehicle (EV) production in China, which surged by 48.8% year-over-year in September 2024. As the market navigates these complexities, it is clear that the interplay between U.S. tariffs, China's economic policies, and global demand will be critical in shaping the future of copper prices.