The 9th OPEC International Seminar is scheduled for 9-10 July 2025 in Vienna, Austria, under the theme 'Chartering Pathways Together: The Future of Global Energy'. This event aims to foster dialogue among industry stakeholders regarding pressing issues in the petroleum and energy sectors. Participants will include Ministers from OPEC Member Countries, heads of international organizations, executives of energy companies, and other industry leaders. The previous seminar in 2023 attracted over 1,000 participants. Recently, the UAE chaired the 45th annual session of the OPEC Fund Ministerial Council, which collaborates with OPEC and developing country partners to stimulate economic growth and social progress in low- and middle-income countries.
In light of current market conditions, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced that OPEC+ will delay oil output increases until April 2025, citing weak demand and market fundamentals. The group has extended production cuts until the end of 2026, holding back 5.86 million barrels per day, which represents about 5.7% of global demand. Originally, OPEC+ had planned to unwind these cuts starting in October 2024, but this was postponed due to rising production outside the OPEC+ alliance. The gradual unwinding of cuts is now set to begin in April 2025, with monthly increases of 138,000 barrels per day lasting until September 2026. Additionally, compensation plans from Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan have been extended to 18 months [ebe5e74b].
Despite lower-than-expected oil use in Q1 2024, OPEC has maintained its forecast for strong growth in global oil demand, expecting an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. However, supply is projected to exceed demand by around 1 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily due to non-OPEC+ supply growth, including from the U.S. This oversupply could swell to 1.4 million barrels per day if OPEC+ unwinds its production cuts [af4bc33d].
The geopolitical landscape, including former President Trump's policies on Iran and Venezuela, may further impact oil prices. Trump's deregulation promises could face challenges from increasing global supply, as OPEC+ production cuts of over 2 million barrels per day create a spare capacity of over 5 million barrels per day. Additionally, China's oil demand growth estimates have been downgraded from 700,000 barrels per day to 180,000 barrels per day for 2024. Oil prices are expected to remain around the low $70s for Brent and $70 for WTI. Meanwhile, US shale oil drillers are facing challenges as they encounter declining production, and the OPEC Fund for International Development has provided a $150 million loan to co-finance Colombia's Climate Action Policy and Energy Transition Programme. The new Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, has received congratulations from UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei [58bec4f8].