As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the implications for global climate policy are significant. Scheduled for November 5, 2024, the election precedes the COP29 climate summit, which will start just six days later on November 11, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan [967b030d]. Bill McKibben, a prominent climate activist, emphasizes that the election could dictate the climate trajectory for the next million years. Recent data indicates that the summer of 2024 was the hottest on record, raising concerns that this year could be the warmest ever documented [dfaeb4a9].
Public sentiment regarding climate policies remains divided. A survey conducted from April 15-18, 2024, found that only about 25% of U.S. adults believe the 2022 climate law has positively impacted their lives, while 40% feel it has had no effect [53addfd6]. This law, part of President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aimed to invest $369 billion in clean energy initiatives, yet many Americans remain skeptical about its efficacy [7215fe0e]. In contrast, 82% of Democrats view climate change as a critical threat compared to only 16% of Republicans, highlighting the partisan divide on this issue [967b030d].
Former President Donald Trump, who is campaigning for re-election, has pledged to repeal the IRA and denies the existence of climate change. His legal challenges, including allegations of sexual assault and a delayed sentencing in a hush money case, complicate his political viability [dfaeb4a9]. As the election date approaches, Trump's stance on climate issues could significantly influence voter sentiment and subsequent climate negotiations.
CNN's Bill Weir recently addressed the stakes of the 2024 election regarding climate change, arguing that climate solutions are economically beneficial and emphasizing that 75% of funding from the IRA is directed to red states. He highlighted the successful transition of Minnesota's Sherco coal plant to solar energy without job losses, showcasing the potential for a positive economic impact from climate initiatives [e7498d1c]. Weir also pointed out that climate change affects public health and happiness, not just wealth, calling for more media focus on the broader implications of climate change [e7498d1c].
The urgency of climate action is echoed in a global survey by Nature Climate Change, where 83% of scientists expressed deep concern about climate change, advocating for fundamental societal changes to address the crisis [2812f871]. As the election draws nearer, the intersection of climate change and political accountability becomes increasingly urgent, emphasizing the need for informed voter engagement on these critical issues [48bd1afc].
Moreover, the political landscape is shifting, with notable endorsements such as Dick Cheney endorsing Kamala Harris, indicating potential bipartisan support for climate initiatives [dfaeb4a9]. If elected, Harris is expected to maintain Biden's climate policies, which have been pivotal in shaping U.S. climate commitments [967b030d]. However, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election is causing hesitation among countries to finalize their climate finance positions ahead of COP29. Negotiators are concerned that this uncertainty could hinder progress and lead to missing the $100 billion financing pledge deadline at the end of the year [52ac70d0].
U.S. climate policy is pivotal, with potential outcomes hinging on Vice President Kamala Harris, who supports Biden's climate initiatives, or former President Trump, who aims to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Current estimates suggest that annual climate finance needs could reach into the trillions, as highlighted by Simon Stiell [6f554edf]. Historical context shows that past U.S. elections have disrupted climate negotiations, notably in 2004 and 2016, further emphasizing the urgency for climate action in light of rising global temperatures and increasing climate disasters [52ac70d0].
As the November 5 election approaches, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race could significantly impact climate finance negotiations at the upcoming UN meetings. Negotiators are exercising caution in their positioning ahead of the election results, which could limit U.S. pledges regardless of the outcome. The current $100 billion financing pledge expires at the end of 2023, and failure to set a new target before 2025 could jeopardize future negotiations [e5d4e47b].
In light of these developments, there is a growing call within the Democratic Party to reevaluate and prioritize its climate change stance. Recent opinion pieces highlight that historic hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts underscore the urgency of climate change, yet both major party campaigns have been relatively quiet on environmental issues [7c7a7eaf]. The recent debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump featured less discussion on climate than previous debates, reflecting a shift in voter priorities, where only 75% of Americans are aware of the IRA's green energy tax credits [7c7a7eaf]. Younger voters, particularly those aged 18-29, show a strong preference for climate action, indicating a potential shift in electoral dynamics if the Democratic Party fails to engage effectively on this issue [7c7a7eaf].
As the election nears, the Democratic Party must openly prioritize climate change to resonate with younger voters and address the growing concerns about the environmental impacts of policies like fracking, which Harris has recently reversed her stance on [7c7a7eaf]. Trump's plans threaten the EPA and state-level efforts, further complicating the political landscape for climate action [7c7a7eaf].