A recent study released on October 15, 2024, by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and the American Soybean Association (ASA) warns that a potential trade war with China could have dire consequences for U.S. farmers. The analysis indicates that soybean exports could decline by nearly 52%, while corn exports might plummet by 84% compared to baseline levels. This translates to projected losses ranging from $3.6 billion to $5.9 billion for soybean farmers and $0.9 billion to $1.4 billion for corn farmers annually [e117c123].
The study, conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES), highlights that U.S. soybean exports to China could fall by 14 to 16 million metric tons annually, representing a staggering 51.8% decline. Similarly, corn exports to China could drop by 2.2 million metric tons, an 84.3% decrease. Such declines are expected to create a ripple effect throughout rural economies, exacerbating existing challenges faced by farmers [e117c123].
During a webinar on October 18, 2024, agricultural representatives, including former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge, discussed the study's findings and urged voters to reconsider their support for former President Trump due to his proposed tariffs. The webinar also highlighted the ongoing effects of the 2018 trade war, which had already caused significant economic damage, with relief efforts amounting to $23 million [e117c123].
In response, the Trump campaign defended its agricultural policies, while many representatives expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The implications of a tariff-induced trade war could not only affect crop prices but also threaten the livelihoods of farmers across the nation, further complicating the already fragile economic landscape [e117c123].