On November 8, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory, describing him as 'courageous' [f02a2a1d]. Russian officials have expressed cautious optimism regarding the potential impact of Trump's presidency on the Russian economy, although there is a prevailing sentiment that significant changes are unlikely unless the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is resolved [f02a2a1d]. Analysts suggest that Trump's administration may lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, which could contribute to slower economic growth in Russia [f02a2a1d].
The dollar's recent performance has already shown signs of strength, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closing the week with a slight gain of approximately 0.07% following Trump's election [bb6732f0]. This increase in the dollar's value is attributed to market reactions to the election results and the anticipation of Trump's economic policies, which could influence inflation and interest rate expectations [41d1322b].
In Russia, interest rates have reached a staggering 21% earlier in November 2024, reflecting the country's ongoing economic challenges [f02a2a1d]. Meanwhile, inflation has shown slight signs of slowing, decreasing from 0.27% to 0.19% weekly [f02a2a1d]. The Bosphorus Gaz has initiated a ruble currency swap with Turkey to facilitate trade, indicating efforts to strengthen economic ties amid sanctions [f02a2a1d].
Retail liabilities in rubles have surged by 19% to over 49 trillion rubles (approximately $0.5 trillion) within nine months, highlighting the increasing reliance on the domestic currency despite economic pressures [f02a2a1d].
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the potential for U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine could significantly impact existing sanctions and the overall economic relationship between the two nations [f02a2a1d]. The interplay of these factors underscores the complexities of the Russian economy in the context of a Trump presidency and its implications for international relations [f02a2a1d].