What Are the Implications of Trump's Election on Climate Policy?

Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, securing 312 electoral votes and nearly 76 million popular votes against Kamala Harris, who received 226 electoral votes and just under 73 million votes. This election marked the first Republican win of both the popular vote and Electoral College since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's victory in all seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—reflects a significant shift in voter sentiment. His supporters credit him with economic recovery post-2008 financial crisis, noting that unemployment dropped to 3.5% by late 2019. [b2dd2e9f]

As of November 14, 2024, Republicans have secured 218 seats in the House of Representatives, granting them control of the U.S. House alongside President-elect Donald Trump. This victory complements their earlier control of the Senate, giving the GOP a significant advantage in shaping legislation. House Speaker Mike Johnson, endorsed by Trump, aims to implement an ambitious 'America First' agenda, which includes significant changes to federal programs. Johnson stated, 'Republicans in the House and Senate have a mandate.' This control enables Trump and the GOP to exert significant influence over the legislative agenda. [df983800]

During his first term, Trump implemented tax cuts, withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, and imposed tariffs, and he is expected to pursue similar policies in his second term. Trump's environmental policies have been controversial; while he supported initiatives like the 2018 Save Our Seas Act and the 2020 Great American Outdoors Act, he also rolled back over 100 environmental regulations and approved projects like the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, which faced significant opposition due to environmental concerns. As of 2023, carbon levels reached a record high of 419.3 ppm, intensifying climate change impacts. A 2022 Pew Research Poll indicated that 63% of U.S. adults believe climate change harm will worsen in their lifetime, yet 75% prioritize economic strengthening over climate action. [b2dd2e9f]

Trump's 2024 campaign suggests a potential setback for global climate action, as he has Republican control of the Presidency, Senate, and Congress. His administration previously took 74 actions weakening environmental protections, and Project 2025 aims to reduce climate research funding and boost American energy production. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allocates US$370 billion for green technology, with projected benefits of US$5 trillion by 2050, but Trump's policies may undermine these efforts. Scientific American warns that Trump's plans could add 4 gigatons to U.S. emissions by 2030, exacerbating the climate crisis. [0e8e9534][840d4aac][b603ac3e]

On November 9, 2024, reactions from various sectors, including the food industry, reflect a mix of hope and anxiety. Food & Water Watch has warned of potential chaos and threats to food safety under Trump's policies, while the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association expressed optimism regarding free-market principles. Hotel associations such as the Asian American Hotel Owners Association (AAHOA) and the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA) congratulated Trump on his election victory, urging him to support pro-business policies and legislation. [570cfeaf]

Trump's health policy plans remain unclear, with potential challenges in repealing the Affordable Care Act. He aims to reshape education funding and foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and China. Additionally, he could appoint two more Supreme Court justices if Justices Thomas and Alito retire, potentially appointing a total of five justices during his presidency. In his first term, Trump confirmed 220 federal judges, indicating a long-term impact on the judiciary. [2ffabd60]

Goldman Sachs Research reported that the S&P 500 index reached record highs and is projected to climb to 6300, with anticipated earnings growth of 11% next year. However, rising yields on ten-year Treasury bonds could dampen stock rallies. Kevin Carey of AHLA emphasized the industry's economic significance and the need for business-friendly policies to foster growth in the hospitality sector. Meanwhile, Michelle Korsmo of the National Restaurant Association highlighted the challenges faced by the restaurant sector and the need for supportive policies in the wake of the election. [7692ba0e]

In a notable prediction, economist Jim Rickards, who accurately forecasted Trump's electoral victory, has introduced 'Project Independence,' focusing on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to enhance U.S. energy independence. Rickards anticipates regulatory reforms to expedite nuclear technology deployment, which he believes could eliminate foreign energy dependency, provide a stable energy supply, and drive significant economic growth. [5e341fe2]

As Trump's administration unfolds, the travel and hospitality sectors will be closely monitoring the impact of his policies on consumer behavior and economic stability, seeking to adapt and thrive amidst the changes. Trump's victory is expected to have significant implications for the U.S. economy, including proposed import tariffs and potentially exacerbating inflation, which is already at its highest in 40 years. This economic agenda complicates the landscape for retailers and service industries alike. [887a8e60]

In a broader context, Trump's second term will be defined by managing economic pressures, international tensions, and climate-related issues. Historian Alfred McCoy warns that Trump's presidency may hasten the end of the 'American Century' starting in 2025, as the U.S. faces challenges from rising powers like China, India, Iran, and Russia. Trump's divisive domestic politics and rejection of international commitments could weaken NATO and U.S. alliances in Asia, leading to a silent decline in U.S. global leadership. Environmental policies under Trump may also lead to economic damage and increased carbon emissions, further complicating the U.S.'s position on the world stage. [ea6fc328]

The appointment of JD Vance as vice president adds another layer of uncertainty to the administration's direction. Future environmental policies under Trump may be influenced by Project 2025, which seeks to reduce federal environmental oversight, potentially withdrawing from international climate agreements. Additionally, geopolitical competition with China and the EU's Green Deal may influence U.S. climate policy. Elon Musk's influence could lead to a nuanced approach towards fossil fuels, with potential for initial pro-fossil fuel policies followed by a shift towards decarbonisation. Overall, the ramifications of Trump's return to power extend beyond U.S. borders, potentially impacting global civil rights and international relations. [d94a85c3][840d4aac]

Despite fears of a slowdown in global efforts to combat climate change, leaders like Li Shuo from the China Climate Hub assert that the transition to renewable energy will continue, with rapid growth in solar energy in regions like Pakistan and Africa being highlighted as positive developments. Russ Vernon-Jones emphasizes the importance of local action to combat climate change, regardless of federal policies. [b603ac3e]

As Trump prepares to assume the presidency on January 20, 2025, his administration is set to introduce significant changes, including the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Proposed tariffs include a 10% tax on all imports, a staggering 60% on Chinese imports, and 100% on cars from China. These tariffs could potentially increase U.S. goods prices by 3% and disrupt supply chains, drawing historical parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Concerns are mounting that Trump's policies may lead to high inflation and poor global growth by 2028, alongside potential job losses from a proposed 75% cut to the federal workforce. Immigration hardliners Tom Homan and Stephen Miller have also been appointed, indicating a tough stance on immigration. Global leaders have expressed concern over U.S. inaction on climate issues, particularly highlighted at the recent Baku summit. [7ce46389]