California's heavy-duty electric truck regulations and the upcoming emissions proposal are raising significant concerns about their impact on the economy and environment, particularly for neighboring states like Arizona and Nevada. Governor Gavin Newsom's administration has been at the forefront of these initiatives, with a clean air policy announced in 2023 aiming to end sales of traditional combustion trucks by 2036 and achieve a 100% zero-emission medium and heavy-duty truck fleet by 2045. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved regulations in January 2024 to phase out medium- and heavy-duty combustion engines [e7b9ebfc].
However, the challenges faced by truck manufacturers in developing electric alternatives that meet industry standards have prompted a bipartisan group of legislators to call for amendments to these regulations. They argue that the current rules could lead to layoffs and closures in the towing industry, as businesses are forced to purchase higher-emission used vehicles due to the high costs associated with compliance [e7b9ebfc].
In a related development, CARB is set to vote on a new emissions proposal on November 8, 2024, which aims to accelerate the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. This proposal seeks to reduce the carbon intensity of fuel by 90% by 2045, with an estimated cost increase of $162 billion through 2046. The implications of this proposal could be severe, potentially leading to shutdowns of major refineries like Chevron and Valero, and the closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington by late 2025. This would significantly affect fuel supply in Arizona and Nevada, requiring the import of replacement fuel via 828 tankers annually, which could produce emissions equivalent to 1.3 million cars [4f1c11a7].
The anticipated rise in fuel prices—47 cents per gallon for gasoline, 59 cents for diesel, and 44 cents for jet fuel—could have a ripple effect on the costs of goods nationwide, especially considering that California's ports handle 40% of U.S. imports [4f1c11a7]. As the state pushes forward with its ambitious environmental goals, stakeholders are increasingly concerned about the balance between achieving these objectives and the economic viability of the trucking and refinery sectors, as well as the broader implications for neighboring states and the national economy [4f1c11a7].