China's response to the ongoing violence in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Gaza war, has revealed the complexities and limitations of its diplomatic strategy. As tensions escalate, analysts suggest that China may benefit from adopting a more anti-Israel stance, especially as the United States faces distractions from its own political landscape [2b26889c].
Historically, China has maintained a policy of focusing on trade and investment in the Middle East, but recent events indicate a shift towards a more vocal support for the Arab cause. Following Iran's missile attack on October 4, 2024, in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, China's ambassador Fu Cong called for restraint from Israel, signaling a potential pivot in its diplomatic posture [2b26889c].
Critics argue that while China seeks to position itself as a mediator and a supporter of Arab interests, it risks damaging its reputation if it fails to act decisively. The current geopolitical climate, particularly with Israel's aggressive actions ahead of the US elections, raises concerns about the potential for a broader regional conflict [2b26889c].
China's cautious handling of the Gaza crisis, alongside its criticism of Israel's actions, aligns with its broader goal of challenging US influence in the region. However, this strategy may backfire if perceived as inconsistent or passive. Experts warn that China's reputation as a peace broker could suffer if it does not take a more active role in mediating the conflict [2b26889c].
Despite its recent anti-Israel rhetoric, it is important to note that China remains a key ally of Israel, with strong economic ties, particularly in the technology sector. This duality complicates China's diplomatic efforts, as it balances its relationships with both Israel and Arab nations [ee090c4c].
In a notable shift, China has aligned itself with the Global South against Israel and the US, indicating a deterioration in Israel-China relations since the onset of the Gaza war. Analysts suggest that China is prioritizing its interests in East Asia and Taiwan over deeper involvement in Middle Eastern affairs [a6a0d2bf].
China's reluctance to explicitly condemn Hamas has further strained its relationship with Israel, as Beijing aims to undermine US influence while rallying support from the Global South. This strategic pivot reflects a broader trend where countries like Saudi Arabia are resisting US defense pacts, signaling a shift in alliances [a6a0d2bf].
The Israel-Gaza war has highlighted the limits of China's engagements in the region. While it aims to undermine US hegemony, the complexities of Middle Eastern politics require a nuanced approach that China has yet to fully master. As regional powers navigate their relationships with both Beijing and Washington, the effectiveness of China's strategy will be closely scrutinized [ee090c4c].
In a related development, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's relationship with China is also evolving. Once optimistic about China's role in the Middle East, Netanyahu's sentiments have soured following the October 7, 2024, Hamas attacks and Israel's military response. A recent survey indicates that about one-third of Israeli Jews now view China negatively, reflecting a shift in perceptions [8ba5e675].
Diplomatic tensions have surfaced, with Israeli and Chinese diplomats clashing at the UN, further complicated by US criticism of China's support for Iran. Analysts suggest that the ongoing conflict may inadvertently benefit China by distracting the US and allowing its economy to grow. John Mearsheimer noted that prolonged conflict keeps the US occupied, which aligns with China's strategic interests [8ba5e675].