Recent discussions among experts have raised critical questions about the effectiveness of U.S. strategic deterrence, particularly in the context of rising tensions with China and the ongoing situation in Taiwan. A roundtable held in October 2024 analyzed contingencies related to Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, highlighting the increasing reliance on economic measures as a deterrent against potential aggression from China [99e1de7f].
Shreya Lad pointed out the contradictions in trade perceptions between the U.S. and Europe regarding China, suggesting that these differences could undermine a unified deterrent strategy [99e1de7f]. Madison Schramm emphasized the complexity of deterrence, noting that the credibility of U.S. commitments is crucial in maintaining stability in the region [99e1de7f].
In response to concerns over U.S. nuclear credibility, South Korea has begun investing in independent conventional deterrents, reflecting a growing apprehension about the reliability of U.S. nuclear assurances [99e1de7f]. Eyck Freymann discussed the rise of economic deterrence, acknowledging its potential but also the challenges it presents in effectively countering threats [99e1de7f].
Critics like Paul Saunders have raised concerns about the U.S. reliance on unilateral sanctions, arguing that their effectiveness is often limited and may not achieve the desired outcomes in deterring adversaries [99e1de7f]. Meanwhile, MacKenna Rawlins highlighted the ambiguity surrounding U.S. de-risking strategies towards China, which could complicate efforts to establish a clear deterrent posture [99e1de7f].
This analysis underscores the need for U.S. policymakers to reassess their strategies in light of evolving geopolitical dynamics, particularly as they relate to China and its ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region [99e1de7f]. The ongoing dialogue among experts suggests a recognition that a multifaceted approach, incorporating both economic and military elements, may be necessary to effectively deter aggression and maintain stability in the region.