As the 2025 federal election approaches, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is considering a significant shift in his immigration strategy, potentially drawing inspiration from Donald Trump's controversial mass deportation plan. Initially, Dutton proposed reducing net migration to 160,000 and cutting permanent migration to 140,000; however, he has since retracted these proposals, signaling a possible pivot towards more aggressive immigration policies [e9d3255f].
Trump's plan, which aims to deport over 11 million undocumented migrants, faces numerous challenges, including legal battles over birthright citizenship, the need for increased manpower, community resistance, and substantial budget constraints. The initial costs of implementing such a deportation program are estimated to be around $86 billion [e9d3255f]. Despite these hurdles, Dutton's potential emulation of Trump's tactics raises questions about his political motivations as he seeks to resonate with a voter base increasingly concerned about immigration levels [e9d3255f].
This shift in strategy aligns with broader trends in voter attitudes towards immigration in Australia, where a significant portion of the electorate, particularly among older demographics, is advocating for reduced immigration levels. This sentiment mirrors trends seen in other countries, such as the United States, where a majority of voters support mass deportation despite recognizing the economic contributions of immigrants [5150ef42].
Dutton's Coalition is strategically positioned to capitalize on these voter preferences, especially as the Albanese government grapples with managing migration targets. The government's recent acknowledgment that high migration levels complicate population management has allowed Dutton to frame the Coalition as a viable alternative to current policies [d86a5750].
However, the economic implications of such a drastic shift in immigration policy are complex. While high migration levels are often linked to economic growth and increased tax revenues, a reduction could lead to diminished growth and poorer budget outcomes [5150ef42]. As Dutton navigates this landscape, he must balance public sentiment with the economic realities of migration, all while preparing for a challenging electoral battle ahead [e9d3255f].