In the ongoing debate surrounding U.S. defense spending, Julia Gledhill from the Stimson Center highlights the troubling reality of the permanent war economy. Since 2000, Pentagon budgets have surged nearly 50%, approaching $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability and implications of such spending. Gledhill notes that while there are calls for increased national security funding, including a proposal from Senator Roger Wicker to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2029, the historical context suggests that excessive military expenditure may hinder long-term economic growth. [f777bd4b]
Todd Harrison, in his chapter from 'Affording Defense: Investing in American Strength to Confront a More Dangerous World', discusses the alignment of national security strategy and budget, revealing that the federal budget deficit is projected to exceed $1.9 trillion in FY 2025, growing to over $2.8 trillion by FY 2033. The U.S. debt now exceeds the size of the economy, raising alarms about fiscal sustainability. Harrison's analysis shows that defense spending has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.7% above inflation since FY 1950, while the U.S. economy has grown at 3.1% annually during the same period. [4fd1027a]
The Senate Armed Services Committee recently approved a $25 billion increase in military spending, reflecting a broader trend of prioritizing defense budgets amid rising global tensions. The National Defense Strategy (NDS) Commission has recommended a budget allocation similar to Cold War levels, which could result in costs ranging from $5 to $10 trillion over the next decade. This approach frames military spending as a jobs program, yet evidence indicates that it may not yield the desired economic benefits. [f777bd4b]
Moreover, Gledhill emphasizes the financialization of the defense industry, where shareholder returns often take precedence over production capacity. This shift raises questions about the long-term viability of the defense sector and its impact on the broader economy. The transition from military to civilian economic activities is also highlighted as a costly endeavor, suggesting that future generations may bear the financial burden of current military spending practices. [f777bd4b]
Harrison further notes that U.S. defense spending as a share of the federal budget has varied, averaging 6.6% from FY 1954 to FY 1990 and 3.2% from FY 1991 to FY 2023. He compares U.S. defense spending to that of other nations, with China spending between $309 billion and $711 billion in 2022. Current defense spending is deemed affordable but requires prioritization over non-defense programs. [4fd1027a]
In 2024, interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed the Pentagon's base budget for the first time, underscoring the urgent need for a reevaluation of defense spending priorities. As lawmakers continue to grapple with the implications of a permanent war economy, the balance between national security and economic stability remains a critical concern for policymakers and citizens alike. [f777bd4b]