In a significant move to stabilize its economy, Sri Lanka has restructured approximately $4 billion of loans from the Export Import Bank of China, which included capitalizing $200.9 million in interest arrears. As of March 2024, the country owed $3.993 billion to China’s Exim Bank, with $903.8 million of that in principal arrears. This restructuring comes as Sri Lanka navigates its complex financial landscape, having previously defaulted on $46 billion in foreign debt in April 2022 [616c1955].
The loans from China Exim Bank were primarily used to fund major infrastructure projects, including the Norochcholai coal plant, which is considered a significant investment for the country. By June 2024, the total owed in restructured loans had risen to $4.187 billion [616c1955].
This restructuring was executed without waiting for negotiations with sovereign bondholders, highlighting the urgency of Sri Lanka's financial situation. The central bank has also been active in managing its obligations, having repaid a swap to Bangladesh and continuing to repay loans to India. These central bank swaps are closely linked to Sri Lanka's IMF programs and the ongoing monetary instability [616c1955].
In addition to these developments, a newly appointed economic team in Sri Lanka recently engaged with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to discuss the progress of the ongoing IMF program and the anticipated release of the fourth tranche of funding. This meeting included key figures such as Anil Jayantha, Duminda Hulangamuwa, and Sunil Handunnetti [07deb3f8].
The new government's approach comes at a critical time as it reviews a $12.5 billion sovereign bond debt restructuring deal previously negotiated by former president Ranil Wickremesinghe. The restructuring is part of an IMF rescue plan initiated after the country defaulted on its debt [27f20466].
Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath indicated that the administration is evaluating whether to proceed with the bondholder agreement that includes a 27-percent haircut for bondholders. An IMF team is expected to visit Colombo for preliminary discussions, with more detailed negotiations planned for later in October in the U.S. [27f20466].
Concerns have been raised about the effectiveness of the new economic team, particularly by economist Vidhura Tennekoon, who highlighted potential challenges they may face in negotiations with the IMF. The team is not currently in a negotiation mode, and the National People's Power (NPP) aims to increase government revenue above 15.3% of GDP [07deb3f8].
On October 7, 2024, Sri Lanka secured a $200 million loan from the World Bank for budget support linked to economic reforms in debt management, banking, and female empowerment. This financing is part of the Resilience, Stability, and Economic Turnaround (RESET) Development Policy Financing program, aimed at improving economic governance and protecting vulnerable populations [0922417d].
As the political landscape continues to shift, with President Dissanayake dissolving parliament and calling for a snap election in November, the future of Sri Lanka's economic recovery efforts and its relationship with international lenders remains uncertain. The previous government's approach to international creditors has come under scrutiny, raising questions about the new administration's strategies moving forward [27f20466].
Despite these challenges, the debt restructuring deal has positively impacted emerging markets, with local stocks nearing a two-year high and currencies in emerging markets appreciating. The MSCI index has risen, driven by hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts and easing local price pressures [a94d00f8].