As TKer celebrates its third anniversary on October 14, 2024, the stock market has shown a remarkable trajectory over the past three years. The S&P 500 experienced a tumultuous start, falling 19% in its first year. However, it rebounded with a 21% increase in the second year and surged by an impressive 34% in the third year, culminating in an overall climb of 31% across this period. This results in an average annualized return of 9%. [2e14cdd0]
Despite these gains, TKer’s analysis warns investors not to expect average returns, noting that only four times in the last 74 years have stocks finished with annual returns between 8-10%. This insight highlights the tendency of Wall Street strategists to cluster their targets around this range, which may not accurately reflect market realities. [2e14cdd0]
On October 11, 2024, the S&P 500 set an intraday high of 5,822.13 and a closing high of 5,815.03, showcasing the index's resilience amid fluctuating economic indicators. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 2.4%, while real wages are on the rise, indicating a complex economic landscape. However, unemployment claims have also increased to 258,000, and consumer sentiment has dipped by 1.2 points in October, reflecting some underlying concerns among consumers. [2e14cdd0]
In addition, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index saw a rise in September, suggesting a degree of confidence among small business owners. The average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed to 6.32%, which could impact housing affordability and consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a robust 3.2% GDP growth for the third quarter, indicating that the economy may continue to expand despite challenges. [2e14cdd0]
Overall, TKer's insights into the stock market and economic indicators provide a nuanced view of the current financial landscape, reminding investors to remain cautious and informed as they navigate these unpredictable waters. [2e14cdd0]