Noah Smith's blog, Noahpinion, recently celebrated its four-year anniversary since transitioning to Substack on November 23, 2020. The blog has garnered over 280,000 readers and 14,500 paid subscribers, reflecting its growing influence in political and economic discourse [83ce2b6].
In the backdrop of this celebration, Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024 marks a significant political shift in the United States, raising concerns about the future of global liberalism. Analysts highlight the challenges facing the Democratic Party, particularly regarding progressivism, identity politics, and governance issues, which have become increasingly pronounced in the wake of Trump's return to power [83ce2b6].
Trump's foreign policy is expected to pose threats to the existing liberal order, as his administration adopts a more authoritarian stance that resonates with rising global trends. This shift is compounded by economic challenges in China, which is experiencing a slowdown that some analysts are dubbing the 'Second China Shock.' This phenomenon is anticipated to have far-reaching effects on global manufacturing and trade dynamics [83ce2b6].
Despite these challenges, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, characterized by low inflation and high employment rates. Early successes in industrial policy, particularly through the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, are seen as positive developments that could bolster the economy in the face of international uncertainties [83ce2b6].
Looking ahead to 2025, predictions suggest a potential cultural backlash against the current political climate, ongoing internal struggles within the Democratic Party, and heightened international tensions with both Russia and China. The optimism surrounding technological progress, especially in energy and artificial intelligence, remains a bright spot amid these challenges [83ce2b6].
In summary, as Trump resumes the presidency, the implications for both domestic politics and global liberalism are profound, with analysts closely monitoring how these developments will unfold in the coming years.