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The Global Concerns Over a Second Trump Presidency: Impact on China, Europe, Climate Change, and Indonesia-US Relations

2024-07-01 16:55:48.350000

Former President Donald J. Trump's plans for a potential second term involve a radical reshaping of American government, according to an article by The New York Times. Trump and his closest allies have outlined a series of policies and actions that they would pursue if he regains power in 2025. These plans include cracking down on immigration, directing the Justice Department to prosecute his adversaries, increasing presidential power, upending America's economic policies, retreating militarily from Europe, and unilaterally deploying troops to Democratic-run cities.

Specifically, Trump intends to carry out mass deportations and increase the number of agents for ICE raids. He plans to build camps to detain immigrants and push for other countries to take asylum seekers. Trump also aims to ban entry into the US by people from certain Muslim-majority nations and try to end 'birthright citizenship.' Additionally, he plans to direct a criminal investigation into President Biden and his family, with the intention of having his political foes indicted. Trump also intends to target journalists for prosecution and bring independent agencies under presidential control. He plans to revive the practice of 'impounding' funds, strip employment protections from civil servants, and purge officials from intelligence agencies, law enforcement, the State Department, and the Pentagon. Trump aims to appoint lawyers who would support and defend his agenda as lawful.

In terms of economic policies, Trump plans to impose a 'universal baseline tariff' on most imported goods, implement steep new trade restrictions on China, slash rules imposed on business interests, and extend and expand tax cuts. He also potentially seeks to undercut NATO or withdraw the US from the alliance. On the military front, Trump plans to settle the Russia-Ukraine war 'in 24 hours' and declare war on drug cartels in Mexico. He also intends to use federal troops at the border and in Democratic-controlled cities.

These plans have been viewed as both promising and alarming, with supporters seeing them as revolutionary and critics warning of the potential erosion of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. Trump's campaign operation is described as more professional and disciplined, and he has the support of policy groups and advisers dedicated to implementing his agenda. However, concerns have been raised about the potential impact on American law enforcement, international relations, and the credibility of the US government. Trump's preoccupation with crime and his views on race were also discussed in the interview with Time magazine. Overall, if Trump were to carry out even a fraction of his goals, it could have a transformative impact on the country.

The prospect of another Trump administration presents threats and opportunities for China, according to an analysis by The Age. Biden has pursued a more strategic and nuanced policy towards China, while Trump's 'America First' policies would be unnerving to both China and America's traditional allies. If Trump regains office, Europe's attitudes towards both the US and China would regress. Marine Le Pen's National Rally policies align with Trump's prioritization of domestic issues and protectionism. A second Trump term would impact the global response to climate change, as Trump opposes Biden's green-tinged policies and the take-up of electric vehicles. The outcome of the US election looked tight, with Biden a realistic chance of retaining the presidency. After the debate, the threat of Trump Mark II is taken more seriously by the rest of the world.

If Donald Trump secures a second term as President of the United States, it could have significant impacts on the bilateral relations between Indonesia and the US, according to an op-ed by Simon Hutagalung in Eurasia Review. Trump's "America First" agenda, which included economic nationalism and strict immigration policies, is expected to continue. This could lead to the imposition of tariffs on Indonesian products, requiring frequent renegotiation of trade agreements. It may also impact foreign direct investment, as American investors may reconsider their strategies. Trump's more assertive foreign policy could involve Indonesia in regional conflicts, particularly in the South China Sea. The US withdrawal from international agreements and organizations could also impact collaborative efforts on climate change and public health. Stricter immigration laws and visa restrictions may affect interactions between Indonesian citizens and the US. Environmental collaboration may suffer due to divergent climate policies. Indonesia will need to navigate these challenges through judicious diplomacy, regional collaboration, and domestic resilience. [7691f8a3]

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