As Nigeria grapples with significant economic challenges, the latest report from SBM Intelligence highlights a troubling decline in the country's economic ranking due to a weaker currency and rising inflation. The 'Africa Country Instability Risk Index' report, released in November 2024, reveals that Nigeria's score changed by -6, placing it alongside Namibia and Zimbabwe, while Seychelles and Botswana experienced even larger declines of -8 and -15, respectively. This downturn is indicative of broader instability within the region [0193d64a].
In terms of economic performance, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has plummeted to $253 billion in 2024, a stark decrease from $477 billion in 2022. This decline is primarily attributed to the devaluation of the naira, which has severely impacted the country's economic stability. Furthermore, Nigeria's GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 3.1% for 2024, significantly below the 8-10% growth rate deemed necessary for sustainable economic health [0193d64a].
The economic landscape is further complicated by rising food inflation and persistent insecurity, which have exacerbated the challenges faced by the Nigerian populace. As a result, Nigeria has now fallen to become Africa's fourth largest economy, trailing behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria [0193d64a].
In conjunction with these developments, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is preparing to release its debt stock report for the second quarter of 2024 on September 13, 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, Nigeria's public debt stock was recorded at N121.67 trillion, reflecting a substantial increase of 24.99% from the previous quarter. The debt is split between external debt, totaling N56.02 trillion, and domestic debt at N65.65 trillion, with Lagos State holding the highest domestic debt at N929.41 trillion [d9803f98].
Additionally, the NBS plans to rebase the country's GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2024, following the outcomes of the Living Survey. This rebasing aims to align economic indicators with current realities, as the last rebasing occurred in 2014 and the CPI reference period dates back to 2009. Dr. Ayo Anthony from NBS emphasized the importance of this update for accurately reflecting Nigeria's economic situation and guiding future policy decisions [d9803f98].
As the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, analysts and policymakers are closely monitoring these developments to address the pressing issues of inflation, currency stability, and overall economic growth in Nigeria.