As of late October 2024, the U.S. economy is being hailed as 'glorious,' with recent analyses indicating that it is 'bigger and better than ever.' This positive economic climate is expected to play a significant role in shaping the political landscape as the 2024 elections approach. According to a report from The Economist, voters are increasingly aware of the favorable economic news, which could bolster Kamala Harris's prospects in the upcoming election [95e67396].
Recent data shows that construction jobs have risen in 80% of U.S. states from September 2023 to September 2024, providing a further boost to Harris's campaign. Texas leads the way with a 5.1% increase, translating to 42,300 new jobs, followed by Florida with 37,100 jobs and Ohio with 16,400 jobs. Notably, Alaska recorded the highest percentage increase at 21.1%. However, New York saw a loss of 6,900 jobs, or 1.8% [f633b280].
Economic growth remained strong over the summer, with the GDP growing at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter of 2024. Low unemployment and inflation rates, coupled with record highs on Wall Street and low gas prices, have contributed to a sense of economic optimism. Joe Brusuelas, an economist, stated that the economy is 'firing on nearly all cylinders' [73c970b0].
Lael Brainard, director of the White House Economic Council, highlighted the economy's resilience during Semafor’s World Economy Summit on October 24, 2024. She noted that the U.S. has consistently achieved growth rates around 3% annually, surpassing previous administrations. Inflation has also decreased to 2.4% in September 2024, marking the lowest rate since February 2021 [f73bcdd7].
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth outlook for the U.S., predicting it will have the fastest growth among wealthy nations by the end of 2024. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's model forecasts an impressive 3.3% annualized growth for the third quarter of 2024, nearly double the median forecast from July [95e67396]. This follows a trend of inflation-adjusted quarterly growth averaging 2.9% since the beginning of 2023, indicating a strong economic recovery [95e67396].
Despite the positive indicators, the budget deficit remains a concern, currently at 6% of GDP. Trump has proposed tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, which Brainard warned could disrupt supply chains and raise consumer costs. In contrast, 23 Nobel Prize-winning economists have endorsed Harris, arguing that her policies would lead to stronger economic performance compared to Trump's approach [8fcbae63].
The job market is described as the healthiest in history, with low unemployment rates and strong growth. The Washington Post emphasizes record middle-class wealth, further supporting the notion of a robust economic environment [8fcbae63]. However, labor shortages, as noted by AGC's Ken Simonson, could hinder further gains in the construction sector [f633b280].
As the election date approaches, the interplay between economic performance and political dynamics will be crucial to watch. Analysts remain optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, suggesting that its strength could significantly influence voter sentiment and ultimately the election outcome. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp noted that voters are making a 'business decision' regarding candidates, reflecting the importance of economic issues in the upcoming election [73c970b0].