In a landscape marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, Southeast Asia finds itself at the center of the US-China rivalry, with both powers vying for influence in the region. As China intensifies its military partnerships with Southeast Asian nations, the need for a cohesive regional security strategy becomes paramount. Recent developments highlight the structural realities of this rivalry, with China conducting its first intercontinental ballistic missile test in 44 years on September 25, 2024, signaling its growing military capabilities [83b9ce89].
China's military relationships have traditionally been strongest with Cambodia and Laos, but recent developments indicate a strategic expansion to include Indonesia, Singapore, and East Timor. This expansion is part of a broader effort to establish a network of alliances that can challenge US military presence and partnerships in Southeast Asia [690c7b2d].
The US has been actively conducting joint military exercises with its allies in the region, including Exercise Sama Sama, which began on October 7, 2024, involving the Philippines, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and Britain. This exercise is part of a larger pattern, with the US having conducted 1,113 military exercises with 14 regional countries from 2003 to 2022, compared to China's 128 [83b9ce89].
Chinese analysts, such as Song Zhongping, describe US military exercises as confrontational, particularly as the US continues to support the Philippines in its territorial disputes with Beijing [690c7b2d]. In response, China has become Thailand's largest arms supplier from 2019 to 2023, accounting for 44% of the country's arms imports. Joint military exercises with ASEAN countries have also increased significantly, with 14 drills conducted in 2023 alone [690c7b2d].
Southeast Asian nations are encouraged to welcome independent involvement from extra-regional powers to maintain open sea lanes and bolster regional security. This includes increasing engagement with European navies to promote interoperability among Southeast Asian forces [83b9ce89]. As Japan and Australia enhance their security roles in the region, the dynamics between China and Southeast Asian nations underscore the intricate balance of power in a region increasingly defined by military competition and strategic partnerships [690c7b2d].
As the Philippines prepares for joint maritime exercises with the US and its allies, the evolving dynamics highlight the importance of a united regional response to China's assertive military posture, emphasizing the need for Southeast Asian navies to engage more actively in collaborative security efforts [83b9ce89].