US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is currently in Israel to hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aiming to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza amidst ongoing military operations. This visit follows a series of escalated tensions in the region, particularly after the October 7 Hamas attack, which has prompted renewed discussions about a trilateral megadeal involving normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sullivan's discussions with Netanyahu are crucial as they come at a time when the US has expressed concerns over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the need for immediate de-escalation [48c32e91].
During his trip, Sullivan is also scheduled to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to discuss the broader implications of the ongoing conflict and the potential for a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians. The Biden administration has been working towards a comprehensive agreement that includes U.S. security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance for Saudi Arabia, which is part of MBS's Vision 2030 to diversify the Saudi economy [dcabe3ad].
The US-Saudi relationship has evolved significantly since its inception in 1945, initially centered around an oil-for-security arrangement. However, tensions have emerged due to the US's increasing energy independence, differing perspectives on Iran, and the fallout from the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. These factors have complicated the dynamics between the two nations, making the future of their relationship uncertain [dcabe3ad].
Recent developments indicate a recalibration of military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States. Historically, the defense ties have been strong, with the U.S. supplying advanced military hardware, making Saudi Arabia a top defense buyer. However, Riyadh is now seeking greater strategic autonomy amid perceived U.S. disengagement. This shift is reflected in MBS's Vision 2030, which emphasizes economic diversification and a recalibrated foreign policy aimed at strengthening ties with China and Russia [90875c2f].
In light of recent events, including the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Biden administration is expected to lift a ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, reversing a policy aimed at pressuring the kingdom to end its military campaign in Yemen. This decision reflects a shift in US policy, as the State Department plans to resume sales of air-to-ground munitions, which could begin as early as next week. The lifting of this ban is seen as a response to changes in the conduct of the Saudi campaign in Yemen, where there have been no air strikes since March 2022, and cross-border fire has largely ceased [48c32e91].
The ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia are crucial, as they could lead to a formalization of their alliance, which would include significant security cooperation and a potential pathway to Palestinian statehood. MBS is reportedly seeking US pressure on Israel to facilitate this outcome, indicating that the future of US-Saudi relations hinges on evolving global dynamics and shared strategic interests [dcabe3ad].
As the US and Saudi Arabia work towards a potential agreement, the implications for regional stability and economic development are significant. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could open new avenues for trade and cooperation, while also addressing longstanding issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Biden administration's commitment to achieving a lasting peace in the region remains a central focus as discussions continue [4a94b62a].
Overall, the recalibration of military ties suggests that future US-Saudi cooperation may become more transactional, focusing on counter-terrorism and maritime security, while Saudi Arabia invests in domestic defense capabilities through initiatives like the Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI). This nuanced response to a changing international order indicates that both nations are adapting to new geopolitical realities, including ongoing regional challenges such as Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy conflicts [90875c2f].