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Normalization with Saudi Arabia Could Shape Middle East Politics and Impact Global Economy

2024-06-03 22:52:34.617000

US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is in Israel to hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza. Sullivan's visit comes as Israeli forces continue military operations in Gaza, including in the city of Rafah. The US has previously stated that it would stop supplying some weapons if Israel launches a major ground offensive on Rafah. Hamas has backed a ceasefire proposal put forward by Egyptian and Qatari mediators, but Israel has rejected it. Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas' attack on southern Israel last year, resulting in numerous casualties.

Sullivan's visit to Israel is part of his broader regional trip, which includes meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. During the meeting, Sullivan and the Saudi Crown Prince discussed the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the need to find a credible track for achieving a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians. They also emphasized the importance of stopping the war in Gaza and facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid. The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia have been working towards a comprehensive agreement that includes U.S. security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance. Sullivan's visit to Israel will further discuss bilateral and regional matters, including the situation in Gaza and efforts to achieve lasting peace and security in the region.

The talks between Sullivan and Netanyahu aim to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and bring an end to the violence that has resulted in significant casualties and destruction. The US has previously expressed its concern over the escalating conflict and has called for an immediate de-escalation. Sullivan's visit underscores the Biden administration's commitment to working towards a peaceful resolution and supporting efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire in the region.

President Biden is pushing for a broad deal that would get Israel to approve a Palestinian state in return for Saudi recognition of Israel. Israeli leaders are resisting joining the deal, despite the symbolic importance of establishing ties with Saudi Arabia. The talks between American and Saudi officials have tried to revive prospects for a deal by demanding more from Israel, including a cease-fire in Gaza and irreversible steps toward the founding of a Palestinian state. The U.S. and Saudi officials are close to a final agreement on a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia. However, the resistance from Israeli leaders and a potential full-scale assault by the Israeli military on the Palestinian city of Rafah put the potential three-way grand bargain in jeopardy.

The US and Saudi Arabia have reached a 'near final set of arrangements' for a defense pact that includes a civil nuclear component. However, obstacles remain for a broader regional deal that would normalize relations between Israel and Riyadh. The bilateral deal is 'more or less complete,' but certain elements, including a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood and steps on stabilizing war-torn Gaza, still need to be completed. The US-Saudi agreement is part of a Middle East 'grand bargain' to reshape the region. The deal would include US civilian nuclear cooperation for Saudi Arabia, which wants US assistance and technology to develop its own nuclear energy program.

The United States is expected to lift a ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, potentially in the coming weeks, according to a report from Iran International. The ban was imposed by the Biden administration in response to Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen and its human rights record. Saudi Arabia, the biggest US arms customer, has been affected by the restrictions. The lifting of the ban on offensive weapons sales is not directly linked to the US-Saudi agreements on nuclear energy, security, and defense cooperation. The White House and Saudi Arabia's government communication office have not yet commented on the report.

Michael Ratney, the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, has said that a “historic” security deal currently under negotiation between the two countries has the potential to fundamentally change the landscape of the Middle East for the better. The deal, which would see Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize ties with Israel in exchange for closer US integration and recognition of a Palestinian state, could be just weeks away. The success of the deal hinges on Israel’s cooperation. The deal would include upgrades to the security partnership and economic relations, while also taking steps toward meeting Saudi Arabia’s demand for an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. The US and Saudi Arabia have been working to strengthen their bilateral relationship, with potential areas of cooperation including trade, high technology, the creative industries, and the space sector. Ratney is optimistic about the future of the US-Saudi partnership and hopes to see Saudi Arabia succeed in its ambitions with the US as its number one partner. [07d30a34]

Normalization with Saudi Arabia has many advantages, primarily economic ones. Israel has an opportunity to open the Saudis’ doors to Israeli companies specializing in technology, thereby opening up a new market for manufacturers and extensive exports. The normalization agreement will defensively secure the position of the countries involved in the region. The US wants this agreement to promote economic development and prosperity in the Middle East and to execute a project that would change the region and the world economy. The interests of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Joe Biden, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intersect in advancing their respective goals. Netanyahu must make tough decisions and take appropriate steps for the diplomatic and security development of Israel, the Middle East, and potentially the whole Western world. [4a94b62a]

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