The Indian stock market is expected to remain volatile this week as it takes cues from the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends. Key factors to watch include the progress of the monsoon, fund flows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), and crude oil prices. The scheduled expiration of June month derivatives contracts may also heighten volatility. Last week, the BSE Sensex climbed 217.13 points (0.28%), while the Nifty went up 35.5 points (0.15%). Market participants will continue to keep an eye on the progress of the monsoon, which will gradually shift focus towards the upcoming budget and Q1 FY25 earnings [5153b6fa] [a45f86e4] [d3005c5b].
Indian markets have been rallying since the election results, with NIFTY50 and SENSEX surging over 7% this month. Investors are now turning their attention to other key factors that could influence the markets next week. These factors include Union Budget-related or government policy announcements, domestic and global macroeconomic indicators, foreign fund inflows, crude oil prices, and global cues. The upcoming week will also see the release of US and Indian manufacturing PMI data, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The primary market will witness three new IPOs and 11 listings. Foreign institutional investors have purchased Indian stocks worth approximately INR 26,565 crore in June. Oil prices have continued to rise due to escalating geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions. Several companies, including Mahindra & Mahindra and Piramal Enterprises, will trade ex-dividend in the coming week. The Nifty has ended the June series with a gain of 7%, and the next target is the 24,500 level. The Bank Nifty index has reached the 53,000 zone for the first time. D-Street experts have recommended stocks like Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Aeronautics, HUDCO, IREDA, BHEL, and Godrej Agrovet ahead of Modi 3.0's first Union Budget. The BSE benchmark index saw a notable jump of 1,822.83 points, or 2.36%, over the past week. Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying State Bank of India (SBI) and Deepak Nitrite Ltd. Gold and silver prices on June 30, 2024: 10 gm of 24 carat gold was at Rs.73990.0 in Delhi, whereas 1 kg of silver was Rs.88090.0 in Delhi. IPOs to watch this week include Emcure Pharma IPO and Ambey Laboratories IPO. The stock market will be closed for nine days in the month of July. The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint [75eaa750] [5186cc6b].
Nifty bulls are awaiting a directional move, with auto stocks in focus. Auto stocks were in focus amid the release of June month sales numbers. Shares of Samvardhana Motherson, Hero Moto, Bharat Forge, Maruti Suzuki, and Bajaj Auto rallied over 1% each. Within the Nifty50 pack, JSW Steel and Bharti Airtel rallied over 1%, while NTPC, Power Grid, and Apollo Hospitals fell up to 2%. The momentum was stronger in mid and smallcap indices. Metals, pharma, media, and oil and gas sectors were trading in the green, while banks, financials, and real estate stocks were under pressure. The US core CPE for May coming at 2.6% is good news for the bulls since it increases the possibility of rate cuts by the Fed this year, analysts said [23ab9261].
Nifty is currently facing hurdles at the resistance of 24,000-24,100 levels. Immediate support is at 23,800 levels. Domestic indices recorded gains last week despite mixed signals from the global market. Large-cap stocks led to underperformance in the mid and small-cap segments. Analysts expect consolidation in the benchmark index with support expected around the 23,700-23,900 range. The undercurrent is positive, with no major risk visible for the domestic market in the short term. All eyes will be on the union budget proposals. U.S. stocks ended weaker on Friday after an early rally fizzled. European shares closed lower on Friday. Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade on the counters of CDSL, IGL, GE Shipping, Lupin, Aegis Logistics, and Tata Motors. The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of EID Parry AU Small Finance Bank, Phoenix Mills, Safari Industries, Latent View Analytics, and India Energy Exchange. Polycab India, CDSL, RIL, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Indus Towers, and Mazagon Dock Ship were among the most active stocks in value terms. Vodafone Idea, YES Bank, PNB, HFCL, Indus Towers, SAIL, and India Cements were among the most traded stocks in volume terms. Shares of CDSL, Chola Fin Holdings, Bombay Burmah, Praj Industries, Mahanagar Gas, Kalyan Jewellers, and 360 One Wam witnessed strong buying interest. Overall, market breadth favoured bulls as 2,133 stocks ended in the green, while 1,768 names settled in the red [481ff546].
Mayuresh Joshi, Head Equity at Marketsmith India, suggests that while it is important to be part of the market momentum, investors should be more selective. He believes that the entire ecosystem will see accelerated investments and government push through regarding capex needs. He highlights railways, defence, and shipbuilders as themes that will continue to perform well. Joshi also emphasizes the importance of execution and expects earnings growth to remain strong in select domestic-focused sectors. He suggests that consumption, discretionary, and durables sectors should have some element of uptake. Joshi recommends considering stocks like Texmaco Rail and Shriram Finance in the railway sector, and Karur Vysya Bank in the banking sector. He also discusses the impact of new criminal laws on the legal system and the need for a changed mindset [cbf2a6c1].