In a recent article by Ben Hickey on Vox.com, the success of a group of internet friends known as Samotsvety in forecasting world events is explored. Samotsvety consists of the four most accurate forecasters in the history of Good Judgment, a major forecasting platform at the University of Maryland [799ee14d].
The article attributes Samotsvety's success to their quantitative reasoning, practice, attention to base rates, and the development of a clear model of the world. Their selection process and the frequency of their forecasts and updates also contribute to their record of success. Samotsvety's predictions are graded using the relative Brier score, and they consistently outperform other forecasters [799ee14d].
The article also highlights the connection between forecasting and building a model of the world. This connection has attracted interest from the intelligence community, although the culture of forecasting in intelligence has declined. Jason Matheny, CEO of the RAND Corporation, advocates for the use of forecasting in government institutions and think tanks [799ee14d].
Economists have been criticized for their inaccurate forecasts, particularly regarding inflation, global supply chain disruptions, and the absence of a predicted recession [6201c4de]. The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine, and the Middle East conflict have made it difficult for economists to accurately predict economic outcomes. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde criticized economists for their lack of openness to other scientific disciplines and their reliance on outdated models [6201c4de].
Economists are being urged to step out of their comfort zones and expand their models to incorporate other components. The weak quality of data and falling response rates to surveys have also contributed to inaccurate forecasts. Some central banks, such as the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, are reevaluating their forecasting processes and adopting more forward-looking methodologies. Economists have fallen in public trust and are now less popular than weather forecasters [6201c4de].
Experts have been criticized for their inaccurate forecasts [91eaf8de]. The article discusses the criticism faced by experts for their incorrect predictions. It highlights the importance of accurate forecasting and the potential consequences of getting it wrong. The impact of inaccurate forecasts on public trust and credibility is also mentioned. The article does not provide specific names or dates but emphasizes the need for accurate predictions and the consequences of inaccurate forecasts [91eaf8de].
Economists have been criticized for missing the mark on inflation, failing to anticipate disruptions in global supply chains, and forecasting a recession that did not materialize. The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine, and the Middle East conflict have made it difficult for experts to accurately predict economic outcomes. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde criticized economists for being a tribal clique and lacking openness to other scientific disciplines. Economists are urged to get out of their comfort zone of Excel spreadsheets and rigid models. Factors such as supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, and geopolitical tensions have made economic models less reliable. Economists have been accused of lacking imagination and relying too much on past trends. The weak quality of data and a falling rate of responses to surveys have also contributed to inaccurate forecasts. Some central banks, such as the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, are taking steps to improve their forecasting processes. Economists need to think differently and integrate other components into their models to make more accurate forecasts.
The success of Samotsvety in forecasting world events highlights the potential for improvement in economic forecasting. By incorporating quantitative reasoning, attention to base rates, and developing a clear model of the world, economists can enhance their understanding of the complexities and dynamics of the economy. The article suggests that economists can learn from the practices of successful forecasters like Samotsvety to improve the accuracy of their predictions [799ee14d].