Myanmar's top general, Min Aung Hlaing, arrived in Kunming, China on November 5, 2024, to attend the Greater Mekong Subregion summit, marking his first visit to China since the military coup in 2021 [99bd77fa]. This visit is seen by analysts as a lukewarm endorsement from China, reflecting the complex dynamics of Myanmar-China relations amidst ongoing turmoil in Myanmar. The summit includes representatives from China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, highlighting regional cooperation despite Myanmar's internal conflicts [99bd77fa].
During this visit, the Myanmar junta's home minister, Lieutenant-General Yar Pyae, also participated in security talks with Chinese officials. These discussions come at a time when armed groups in Myanmar have accused the junta of violating a ceasefire that was brokered by China [99bd77fa]. Meanwhile, Min Aung Hlaing has indicated that the next election in Myanmar may not be held nationwide but only in areas where peace and stability can be ensured [bea67138]. The military has faced significant resistance since the coup, with ongoing conflicts against ethnic minority armies and pro-democracy militias, leading to accusations of atrocities and a prolonged state of emergency [bea67138]. Critics and Western nations have dismissed the junta's electoral plans as a sham, with numerous political parties dissolved since the coup [bea67138].
In a significant development, the International Criminal Court (ICC) requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing on November 27, 2024, citing his likely criminal responsibility for crimes against humanity against the Rohingya people [03c16321]. This comes in the wake of nearly one million Rohingya fleeing to Bangladesh during the military's crackdown in 2017, which has drawn widespread condemnation [03c16321]. Analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of Hlaing's arrest while he remains in power, as Myanmar is not a member of the ICC. However, the warrant symbolizes a crucial recognition of the suffering endured by the Rohingya [03c16321]. The ICC has jurisdiction over Bangladesh, where many victims were displaced, and Hlaing's international travel could potentially lead to arrest in ICC member states [03c16321]. The situation remains complex, particularly with the ongoing actions of the Arakan Army against the Rohingya, who continue to seek safety, including recent rescues off the coast of Indonesia [03c16321]. Calls for accountability may provoke further crackdowns by the junta, complicating the already volatile situation in Myanmar [03c16321].