Mexico has made history by electing Claudia Sheinbaum as its first female president. The election, which took place on June 2, 2024, saw Sheinbaum, a former climate scientist and candidate for the ruling leftist Morena party, emerge as the winner. Sheinbaum's main contender was Xóchitl Gálvez, a former Mexican senator running for the opposition coalition. This election is the largest in Mexico's history, with over 98 million eligible voters and more than 20,000 public offices being contested [f5dc2708].
Claudia Sheinbaum, a physicist with a doctorate in energy engineering, became the first woman and first Jewish person to be elected president of Mexico, winning around 60% of the vote. Sheinbaum was born in Mexico City in 1962 and has served in various roles in the city. Sheinbaum was appointed environment secretary of Mexico City in 2000 and later joined the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Sheinbaum has a team with a proven record on improving security, but she will have to address Mexico's organized crime and security issues [d19642a9].
The outcome of the election has significant implications for the United States, as Mexico is its top trading partner. US officials have been closely monitoring the election as they prepare a border executive action. The election comes at a time of transition in the US-Mexico relationship and falls in the same year as the US presidential election. The next president of Mexico will face the challenge of addressing violence and impunity in the country [f5dc2708].
The election campaign has been marred by violence, with dozens of assassination attempts and attacks on candidates. This has raised concerns about the state of democracy in Mexico and the influence of organized crime. The new president will need to tackle these issues and work towards ensuring political stability within the ruling party [f5dc2708].
Claudia Sheinbaum will become Mexico's first female president on October 1, 2024. As she takes office, there are questions about what her presidency will mean for Mexico's economy. Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador leaves behind a relatively vibrant economy, but Sheinbaum faces economic headwinds, including a budget deficit and spending on social programs. Sheinbaum and her party will have supermajorities in both houses of Mexico's Congress, which raises concerns about her independence as president [a17e4a49].
However, Sheinbaum has emphasized respecting business freedom, keeping the door open for private national and foreign investment, and maintaining fiscal responsibility. Her administration is likely to prioritize the economic relationship with the United States, taking advantage of the USMCA trade deal and nearshoring to diversify supply chains. Mexico is facing its biggest budget deficit since the 1980s, and the new administration will need to find new sources of revenue to support social programs while reducing the fiscal deficit [a17e4a49].
Claudia Sheinbaum's election as Mexico's next president has raised concerns among investors about her determination to continue the current president's policies, particularly regarding private investment in the country's energy sector. Sheinbaum will inherit the results of the current administration, including the re-nationalization of Mexico's oil and natural gas resources and electric power generation. The country's budget deficit is approaching 6% of its GDP, which could lead to a financial crisis. Mexico's economy is heavily dependent on the U.S., with roughly 40% of its GDP coming from exports, 80% of which go to the U.S. Sheinbaum's nationalization policies have already impacted Mexico's natural gas production, which now serves only about a third of the demand, with the rest being imported from Texas. Texas is Mexico's largest trading partner, with nearly $130 billion in goods traded last year. The energy sector in Mexico is in a devastated state, and Texas could potentially help, but it remains to be seen if Mexico will allow Texas investment. Sheinbaum has pledged to cut the deficit to 3.5% of GDP next year [1f156e87].