As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, the implications for U.S.-ASEAN economic relations are becoming increasingly significant. Southeast Asia, with a GDP of approximately US$3.6 trillion and a population nearing 700 million, stands as the U.S.'s fourth-largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between the U.S. and ASEAN reached US$500 billion last year, with the region enjoying a US$200 billion trade surplus with the U.S. [5bf6d2e7].
U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia is substantial, amounting to US$480 billion. The potential outcomes of the election could lead to markedly different approaches to these economic ties. Under a potential Kamala Harris presidency, continuity in partnerships is expected, with a focus on enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting clean energy initiatives [5bf6d2e7]. Conversely, a return to Donald Trump's administration could see a revival of 'America First' policies, which might include a withdrawal from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), potentially creating volatility in U.S.-ASEAN relations [5bf6d2e7].
In light of these developments, Southeast Asian nations are encouraged to strengthen regional integration, diversify their trade relationships, foster innovation, and enhance engagement with U.S. counterparts. This strategic approach could help mitigate risks associated with fluctuating U.S. policies and ensure sustained economic growth in the region [5bf6d2e7].
Meanwhile, during the 27th ASEAN-China Summit held on October 10, 2024, in Vientiane, Laos, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced the conclusion of negotiations for the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which is expected to significantly boost trade, valued at approximately US$911.7 billion last year [f310022e]. This development highlights the growing economic ties between China and ASEAN amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the South China Sea, where confrontations have escalated [f310022e].
The juxtaposition of U.S. and Chinese influence in the region is evident, with recent analyses indicating that China has been perceived as the dominant economic force in ASEAN, though its influence has seen a decline from 75.2% in 2019 to 59.5% in 2024. In contrast, the U.S. holds a 14.3% influence, while ASEAN itself is perceived at 16.8% [c26bd5db].
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between economic ties and territorial disputes will remain a critical focus for both ASEAN and its partners, including China and the United States. The upcoming U.S. elections will undoubtedly shape the future of these relationships, making it essential for Southeast Asian nations to navigate these changes strategically [5bf6d2e7].