The US-China trading relationship regarding high-density polyethylene (HDPE) has undergone significant changes since 2020. Notably, US exports of HDPE to China surged by 120%, increasing from 0.8 million tonnes in 2022 to 1.8 million tonnes in 2024. This increase comes as China's imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 40%, dropping from 5.4 million tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes during the same period. The shift in trade dynamics can be attributed to various factors, including adjustments in tariffs and changing market demands [da6b1f6b].
In February 2020, China reduced US tariffs on HDPE from 34% to 6.5% as part of a waiver agreement, facilitating increased exports. This tariff reduction has played a crucial role in making US HDPE more competitive in the Chinese market. However, the complexities of forecasting future trade flows remain, influenced by factors such as feedstock costs and China's evolving economic maturity. Analysts emphasize the importance of scenario modeling to navigate the uncertainties surrounding trade policies and their implications for market dynamics [da6b1f6b].
In a related context, China's Ministry of Commerce has recently announced a reduction in anti-dumping duties on polyoxymethylene copolymer imports from Kolon ENP Inc to 6.2%, effective June 21. This decision follows an investigation into the dumping of the chemical product in the Chinese market, indicating a shift in China's stance towards imports of this material. The move is part of broader efforts to ensure fair competition in the global plastics sector, amidst ongoing tensions with the West [5292b344].
Moreover, China has launched an anti-dumping probe into polyformaldehyde (POM) copolymers imported from the EU, US, Japan, and Taiwan, aiming to assess whether these countries are engaging in unfair trade practices that harm domestic producers. This investigation highlights China's commitment to protecting its chemical industry while navigating the complexities of international trade [b3607faa].