The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump has sparked speculation in the US market regarding the potential for Trump's re-election. Analysts are anticipating rate cuts and inflation concerns in the coming years [d5918600]. Geoff Dennis, an independent EM commentator, believes that the shooting incident will increase the chances of Trump winning the election. This belief has led to a rally in equities, as investors see a potential Trump victory as favorable for tax cuts. However, this bullish sentiment is more short to medium-term, rather than long-term. Rate cuts are expected in September and December, and the longer-term outlook for the fiscal deficit is not promising under either president [d5918600].
The shooting incident targeting former President Trump has had significant implications for the US markets and investor sentiment. The incident has increased Trump's chances of returning to the White House, leading to a steepening of the Treasury yield curve and lifting US stock futures [ecdc8094]. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the potential market impact of the shooting, with some considering how much of the incident has already been priced into the markets. Assets positively linked to the 'Trump trade', such as energy firms, private prisons, credit-card companies, and health insurers, may benefit from the incident. However, renewable-energy stocks could suffer as a result. Additionally, tensions with China may increase, potentially leading to fresh tariffs [80ff81e6]. The shooting has also raised concerns about the US fiscal deficit, as the incident increases the chances of tax cut extensions and higher trade tariffs. Short-term yields are falling, and futures are fully priced for a first Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Bitcoin has experienced a jump, surpassing $60,000 [ecdc8094].
In China, the shooting incident coincided with the release of official data showing that the Chinese economy expanded by just 4.7% in the second quarter, falling below the forecast of 5.1% [7db0db71]. This lower-than-expected growth has raised concerns about the state of China's economy and its potential impact on global markets. Hong Kong stocks have declined in response to the shooting, while mainland China stocks have gained on hopes of government support [ecdc8094].
The shooting of former President Trump has also affected the ongoing earnings season. Financial giants Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are next up to report their earnings, and their performance will be closely watched by investors [ecdc8094]. Furthermore, Google parent company Alphabet is reportedly in talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for $23 billion [ecdc8094].
Presidential assassination attempts are not new to American history. According to a top historian, such attempts are 'endemic' to American culture, with 12 out of 48 presidents being killed or nearly killed. The recent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump is part of a long record of such acts. Political violence and volatility are considered a drag on the economy as they create uncertainty and can lead to a breakdown in the rule of law. However, the markets reacted positively to the assassination attempt on Trump, with a rally in securities and assets expected to perform better under a second Trump presidency. The prevalence of assassination attempts in the US is attributed to easy access to guns, conspiracy theories, and a libertarian streak. The attempt on Trump's life could lead to more political strife and economic instability. Trust in the US government has plunged in recent years, and the motive for the assassination attempt against Trump is still unknown. Acknowledging and addressing presidential assassination attempts is crucial to prevent further political violence [d8837742] [3affa1c1].
An assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump serves as a reminder of the harm of divisive speech. Four sitting US presidents have been killed, and Reagan, Roosevelt, and Trump were injured in assassination attempts. Threats against US federal judges and court personnel have doubled in the last three years. The language of fear and divisive political talk has led to violence and fear among minority Americans. In Hong Kong, divisive politics and inflammatory language have caused division and nearly brought down the city. Moderating our words and rejecting inflammatory talk is necessary to make a difference. [7852dbd8].
Catherine Woodall, a survivor of gun violence, shares her experience and trauma following the attempted assassination of former President Trump. She describes the impact of the news and social media coverage on her PTSD and how it brings back memories of the Route 91 mass shooting. Woodall expresses her fear of the potential carnage that could have occurred if the assailant had access to a bump stock, which has now been made legal by the Supreme Court. She urges readers to contact lawmakers and advocate for the reinstatement of a federal bump stock ban to prevent future mass shootings. Woodall concludes by sharing her hope that by raising awareness, others will join the effort to save innocent lives and prevent easy access to weapons that can cause mass harm [c456b880].
Overall, the shooting incident targeting Donald Trump has had far-reaching effects on various aspects of the global economy and financial markets. The incident has increased Trump's chances of re-election, impacted US markets and Treasury yields, raised concerns about the US fiscal deficit, influenced investor sentiment in China, highlighted the prevalence of presidential assassination attempts in American history, and shed light on the harmful effects of divisive speech. The full extent of the incident's impact is still unfolding, and market participants will continue to closely monitor developments [ecdc8094].