The Legacy of the Cold War: Impact on Cuban-Soviet Relations and U.S.-Cuba-USSR Triangle

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the symbolic end of the Cold War. Geopolitical events have now changed course, which has significant yet underappreciated implications for investors [a89acba2]. Without its historic adversary, the Warsaw Pact, officially dissolved in 1991, NATO suffered a crisis of identity, leading to the axing of defense budgets and an economic 'peace dividend' [a89acba2]. However, Russia and China never accepted American hegemony, viewing themselves as great powers. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been a watershed moment for the defense industry. All European NATO countries now accept a 2% of GDP floor on annual defense budgets. The biggest problem European defense companies currently face is ramping up manufacturing capabilities to meet demand [a89acba2].

The collapse of Stalinism in 1989 had far-reaching consequences that continue to shape the current geopolitical landscape. Vincent Kolo of chinaworker.info delivered a speech at the 2024 Marxist School of ISA in China-Hong Kong-Taiwan on the 50th anniversary of the founding of ISA/CWI, highlighting the impact of the collapse of Stalinist regimes [b33a5006]. The collapse of Stalinism led to a complete re-evaluation by the CWI, with the minority faction later becoming the IMT. While the IMT refused to recognize capitalist restoration in the Stalinist states, the restoration of capitalism gave world capitalism an ideological victory and led to the disintegration of the left and the rise of neoliberalism [b33a5006]. The collapse of Stalinism also resulted in a wave of privatization and the emergence of super-rich oligarchs [b33a5006].

Furthermore, the collapse of Stalinism had significant implications for the emergence of China and Russia as major imperialist powers. The CWI was one of the first to understand this process and correct their analysis, recognizing the impact of the collapse of Stalinism on the global balance of power [b33a5006]. These developments have further contributed to the shifting geopolitical landscape and the new Cold War era [a89acba2].

The new Cold War increases the attractiveness of 'outside' money in all its forms: cash, gold, crypto, and, for the Axis, their own currencies. The economic history of war suggests that rather than risk losing geopolitical conflicts, central banks of nations at war will backstop government debt, resorting to the printing press. The inflationary nature of war and the attractiveness of 'outside' money means that gold - and its more volatile peer silver - should replace government bonds as a portfolio risk diversifier [a89acba2].

America's national security is at risk due to the failure of corporate, media, and policy elites to understand the enduring verities of great power politics after the Cold War. The United States won the Cold War due to its massive industrial base, global reserve currency, and military power. However, the implosion of the Soviet Union was seen as an ideological triumph, leading to the belief in a new globalist age. The emergence of the West Coast digital aristocracy and the outsourcing of critical supply chains contributed to the rise of a transnational ruling elite. Chinese money has influenced think tanks, corporations, and the media, leading to the transfer of American technology and industry to China. The misdiagnosis of the end of the Cold War has led to deep structural changes in America and a need to return to traditional American pragmatism and patriotism in domestic and foreign policies [5ced51b4] [a89acba2].

The possibility of a new world war looms large, causing growing concern among officials and investors. While the stock market remains relatively calm, the outbreak of war could have severe consequences for the global economy. The conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the tensions between Beijing and Taipei all contribute to the fears of a global conflict. Experts warn of potential disruptions to economic activity, oil prices, and global trade. The seriousness of the current geopolitical situation is underscored, with potential impacts on energy prices, food costs, international trade, and diplomatic relations. Although the immediate impact on the U.S. economy is expected to be minimal, the situation is being closely monitored [464c2bfe] [8b8f058a] [1d715367] [f2770c0c] [bb5f0286] [227217c4] [8fe1c62b] [4d82441d] [b1615d8a] [a89acba2] [b33a5006].

The article 'Cold War shadows and other legacies' by Rafael Hernández discusses the legacies of the Cold War and the impact it has had on Cuban-Soviet relations and the U.S.-Cuba-USSR triangle [62e977ff]. The author highlights the historical gaps and misconceptions surrounding the U.S. Cuba policy, particularly the economic sanctions imposed on Cuba. The article argues that these sanctions were not aimed at promoting democracy and freedom, but rather at intimidating and punishing Cuba for the Revolution. The article also explores the consequences of the ongoing U.S. embargo on Cuba, including its effects on foreign and domestic policy, as well as the personal experiences of individuals affected by the siege. It concludes by discussing the potential for dialogue and cooperation between the U.S. and Cuba, particularly in the areas of defense and national security.

The collapse of Stalinism and the legacies of the Cold War continue to shape the current geopolitical landscape, with implications for global security, defense budgets, and economic policies. Understanding these historical developments is crucial for investors and policymakers alike.