The Arakan Army (AA) has made significant military advancements in Rakhine State, Myanmar, particularly since November 2023, following their Operation 1027. This operation has allowed the AA to establish nine military zones and deploy approximately 40,000 troops since its inception in 2009. As of mid-October 2024, the AA controls over two-thirds of Rakhine State, including key areas such as Sittwe and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone [563e4e4a].
Despite these military successes, the AA faces substantial challenges in governance and addressing the socio-economic needs of the population. Historically, the group has provided administrative services and is currently training personnel to enhance its governance capabilities. Their legitimacy is further strengthened by efforts to engage with diverse community representatives, including those from the Rohingya population [563e4e4a].
The future of Rakhine's autonomy and stability is closely tied to the AA's ability to navigate these governance challenges effectively. As the group continues to assert control over the region, the question remains whether it can transition from a military organization to a capable governing body that meets the needs of all Rakhine residents [563e4e4a].