China has been asserting its dominance over the West Philippine Sea (WPS) for over 15 years, a region crucial for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce. With a population of 1.42 billion, China's expansionist policies are driven by the need for resources, particularly in the WPS, which offers significant opportunities for revenue, food, and energy [9aa3cc20].
The West Philippine Sea is vital for the Philippines, especially as China encroaches on its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling rejected China's expansive claims in the region, yet China continues to confront Philippine vessels aggressively, seeking to control oil deposits and other resources [9aa3cc20].
In response to these challenges, the Philippine government is pursuing a hybrid energy approach to avoid a potential energy crisis. Notably, Prime Energy Resources is investing $600 million in the Malampaya gas fields, while Filipino billionaire Enrique Razon plans to invest $187 million to commence drilling in 2025 [9aa3cc20].
As tensions rise, numerous diplomatic protests have been filed by the Philippines against China's aggressive actions. Retired US Navy commander Kirk Lippold has warned that the Philippines could become a potential starting point for conflict, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of China's assertiveness [9aa3cc20].
In light of these challenges, a recent forum on October 25, 2024, highlighted the Philippines' potential to learn from Indonesia's approach to the South China Sea dispute. Analysts urged Manila to strengthen ties with Jakarta to leverage Indonesia's regional leadership against China's claims. Chester Cabalza emphasized the importance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and Indonesia's role in promoting a rules-based order [afb60261].
Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met on September 20, 2024, marking 75 years of bilateral ties. The forum discussed Indonesia's 'quiet diplomacy' and military modernization efforts as a model for the Philippines, demonstrating that it can assert sovereignty while engaging economically with China. The need for a legally binding Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea was also emphasized [afb60261].
Asian policy analyst Gordon Chang believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks a quick win from the Philippines, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. The situation calls for a focus on peace and diplomacy rather than war, as the stakes in the West Philippine Sea are high for both nations and the broader region [9aa3cc20].
As Malaysia prepares to chair ASEAN in 2025, the region's unity is increasingly tested by external pressures and internal divisions. Vietnam's recent diplomatic engagements with China and the Philippines' escalating tensions with Beijing highlight the delicate balance that Southeast Asian nations must maintain amid competing influences [72f2336c][e809d5e0].