The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region, rose to 51.3 for June from 48.2 in May, marking the third time in 2024 that the index has risen above growth neutral. Approximately 6% of supply managers have reshored all of their international purchases back to the U.S., while another 42% have reshored a portion of their purchasing. The region's employment index has slumped below growth neutral for a sixth straight month. Supply managers remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, with approximately 48% expecting a downturn in economic activity for the remainder of 2024. The wholesale price gauge fell to a level indicating cooling inflationary pressures. The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group expects a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meetings due to a weak 2024 economy and cooling inflationary pressures. The rising value of the U.S. dollar is hurting exports, with new export orders sinking and import numbers increasing. Economic optimism for the next six months increased slightly, but approximately 48% of supply managers expect worsening business conditions. The regional inventory index expanded, but it is unclear if the buildup is due to higher expected future sales or a slowdown in current sales. The state reports for Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota are also included [059df9a5].
The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell below the growth-neutral threshold for May, marking the third time in the past four months. The overall index, which ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth-neutral, sank from April's numbers. Supply managers remained pessimistic about the 2024 economic outlook, with approximately 42% expecting slower economic growth for the remainder of the year [65c2feff].
The employment gauge has tumbled for the past five months, although the May employment index increased from April's numbers. The region's manufacturing sector experienced job gains of 0.4% and hourly wage gains of 4.8% over the past 12 months. The May price gauge indicated elevated inflation, with supply managers expecting input prices to expand by 4.9% over the next six months. Economic optimism for the next six months increased slightly, with approximately 42% of supply managers expecting worsening business conditions. The regional inventory index dipped, and it is unclear if the buildup in inventories is due to higher expected future sales or a slowdown in current sales. Export numbers worsened due to the rising value of the U.S. dollar, while the slowing regional economy pulled the import reading down. Other survey components of the index, such as new orders, production or sales, and speed of deliveries, declined [65c2feff].
In Kansas, the Business Conditions Index for May dipped, while the state's manufacturing sector experienced job gains of 0.5% and hourly wage gains of 2.2% over the past 12 months. The Oklahoma Business Conditions Index also slumped, with the state's manufacturing sector experiencing job gains of 0.4% and hourly wage gains of 4.8%. The Missouri Business Conditions Index slipped to a solid and regional high, with the state's manufacturing sector experiencing job gains of 0.8% and hourly wage gains of 10.0%. Nebraska's overall index fell below the growth-neutral threshold after rising above it in April, with the state's manufacturing sector experiencing job gains of 3.3% and hourly wage gains of 1.8% over the past 12 months [65c2feff].
The overall Rural Mainstreet Index has fallen below growth-neutral for the 10th consecutive month, according to the June survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The region's overall reading for June was 41.7, down from 44.2 in May. Iowa's June RMI increased to 48.0 from May's 40.6. Iowa's farmland price index for June declined to 50.9 from 52.2 in May. The farm equipment sales index for June dropped to 31.8 from 34.0 in May. The new hiring index for June decreased to 47.7 from May's 50.0. Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to 29.2 from May's 28.8. Home sales unexpectedly expanded to 62.5 from 46.0 in May, while retail sales continued to fall with a June index of 41.3, down from 46.1 in May [2fb3d67e].