Nicholas Kristof argues that Europe has often been seen as a model for America due to its social safety nets, lower infant mortality rates, and longer life expectancy. However, Europe is currently struggling economically, with the U.S. economy growing 2.5% compared to the EU's 0.4% in the previous year [b497fded]. Northern Europeans work fewer hours than Americans, enjoy universal health care, and have better child care, yet Europe lacks major tech companies compared to the U.S. [b497fded].
Germany, in particular, is viewed as the 'sick man of Europe' under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, facing significant economic challenges including a 0.3% contraction in 2023 and a growth forecast of just 0.2% in 2024 [2a781895]. This makes Germany the worst-performing large economy in the world [d9e7e9ea]. The decline in Germany's economy is attributed to several factors, including declining exports to China, high energy prices, rising military spending, and US influence [2a781895]. The US has coerced German companies like BASF and Volkswagen to leave China through the Interparliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), a group funded by the National Endowment for Democracy and George Soros [2a781895].
The US has also been implicated in the bombing of the Nord Stream Pipeline, leading to high energy prices in Germany [2a781895]. The abandonment of nuclear power and the reliance on intermittent renewable energy sources have resulted in skyrocketing electricity prices and a decline in industrial activity [b804e538]. Despite recent falls, electricity prices in Germany remain high compared to historical and international standards, posing a competitive disadvantage for the German economy [21828c4a].
Germany's green policies have had a detrimental impact on its economy. The push for renewable energy has resulted in deindustrialization and a slowdown in trade. Germany's gross domestic product has been falling since the third quarter of 2022, causing fears of the first two-year-long recession since the early 2000s [e583fe4d]. High energy costs for consumers, with an average electricity price of 46 cents per kilowatt-hour compared to just under 13 cents in the United States, have slowed the economy and threatened the profitability of many companies. Around 67% of German companies have moved at least some operations abroad due to high energy prices and inflation. The deindustrialization is prevalent in sectors such as mechanical engineering, industrial goods, and automotive [e583fe4d].
Germany's military spending has increased by 42% over the past decade, driven by the conflict in Ukraine and US pressure [2a781895]. The German political class has suppressed dissent and failed to address growing public anger, leading to the rise of right-wing populism [b804e538]. Recent polls show a significant shift in public opinion that's increasingly opposed to the coalition government [e583fe4d].
The European Union's per-person GDP has been nearly flat since 2008, with OECD reports indicating that U.S. disposable income stands at $51,000 compared to Germany's $39,000, France's $34,000, Italy's $29,000, and Greece's $21,000 [f31d7e2c]. Government spending constitutes nearly 50% of Europe's GDP, leading to resource allocation issues. High tax rates and welfare systems discourage production, and the European venture industry is six times smaller than that of the U.S. [f31d7e2c]. Since 2000, one in five publicly listed European companies have left or gone out of business, highlighting the stagnation in the European economy [f31d7e2c].
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has warned that Europe faces unsustainable social models due to declining productivity and rising old-age dependency ratios. Government spending in the UK is projected to reach 45% of GDP, while over 20% of the populations in Spain, Germany, and France are over 65. Italy is projected to have over one-third of its population aged 65 and older by 2040 [19b2d79c]. The rising costs of pensions and healthcare threaten welfare states across Europe, which lags behind the US in productivity growth, with only four of the top 50 tech companies being European [19b2d79c]. Geopolitical tensions and trade wars further exacerbate these economic pressures, emphasizing that growth must precede welfare spending [19b2d79c].
In a recent reflection on a trip to Central and Eastern Europe, Roger Ream highlights the 35th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 75th anniversary of NATO, while also noting the 85th anniversary of Germany's invasion of Poland. He cites a report by Sweden’s V-Dem Institute indicating a 15-year global retreat of democracy, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, with Hungary and Serbia labeled as 'electoral autocracies' [ab81167e]. Ream expresses concern over declines in economic freedom in Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2024 Index of Economic Freedom, emphasizing the need for a revival of political and economic freedom in Europe [ab81167e].
Adding to these challenges, a recent EU summit discussed the declining competitiveness of Europe's economy amid trade conflicts and the potential impact of the upcoming US elections, particularly with fears surrounding a possible Trump victory [91cdce3b]. Allianz Trade has warned of 1.6 million job risks in Europe and North America, reflecting the precarious state of the labor market [91cdce3b]. France is also facing economic difficulties, with government spending cuts and tax increases being implemented to stabilize the economy [91cdce3b]. Furthermore, the EU has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars amid uncertainties in trade with China, complicating the economic landscape further [91cdce3b]. Wealth tax proposals are gaining traction in both France and Germany, and the G20 is set to consider a billionaire tax, indicating a shift in economic policy discussions [91cdce3b].
Overall, Europe's decline is a complex issue with multiple factors at play. While Germany's economic struggles are evident, it is important to consider the broader context of Europe's economic challenges and the trade-offs associated with green policies. The upcoming elections in Europe and the US will be crucial in shaping the future of energy policies and determining the trajectory of Europe's economic recovery [c47aeb21][fe8806cc].