Recent developments in the South Caucasus have intensified an ongoing arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan, fueled by military sales from India and Pakistan. Azerbaijan's military capabilities have been significantly enhanced by the acquisition of JF-17 Thunder warplanes from Pakistan and China, culminating in a substantial US$1.6 billion deal for eight jets. Concurrently, Armenia has received US$600 million in military aid from India, which includes howitzers and air defense systems. This escalation comes amid renewed tensions over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, raising fears of potential hostilities between the two nations [165abee0].
In addition to the military support from India, Armenia is set to receive 17 Akash-1S missile systems as part of a US$720 million contract. France has also stepped into the fray, supplying military equipment to Armenia, further complicating the regional dynamics. Analysts caution that unresolved territorial disputes could provoke unilateral military actions by Azerbaijan, particularly given its recent military enhancements [165abee0].
France's involvement in the region has been criticized as potentially hypocritical, especially as it seeks to increase its influence while simultaneously calling for dialogue. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Azerbaijan emerging as a dominant power, and major global players like the USA and the EU facing consequences for their pro-Armenian stance. The integration of Iran into BRICS and its collaboration with Azerbaijan on transport projects underscore the importance of regional cooperation [4b4f8b57][1581e6ec].
As the situation evolves, the potential for conflict remains high. If Trump were to win the upcoming US presidential election, analysts predict a shift in US policy towards a less active role in the South Caucasus, focusing primarily on energy interests. This could lead to increased economic ties between Azerbaijan and Western partners, further altering the balance of power in the region [a4a644ea].