Ireland's economic trajectory is increasingly intertwined with the performance of the U.S. economy, as highlighted by recent insights from S&P Global Ratings. The agency projects that Ireland's growth outlook for 2025 will exceed 2%, driven by strong personal consumption and foreign direct investment (FDI) from U.S. companies [c2e127e3]. This relationship underscores the notion that Ireland's economic growth is 'more American than European' [c2e127e3].
Dara Calleary, the Minister for Social Protection, previously noted that despite the potential for U.S. companies to reconsider their investments due to changing corporate tax policies, the majority are expected to remain in Ireland. Currently, U.S.-owned multinationals employ 11% of the Irish workforce, significantly impacting the local economy [5e9ea904].
However, Ireland's deep economic ties with the U.S. also expose it to risks associated with U.S. policy uncertainty. For instance, the €54 billion export trade between Ireland and the U.S. faces potential threats from tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [c2e127e3]. Calleary's assertion that U.S. companies are likely to stay in Ireland aligns with S&P's positive outlook on the country's fiscal health, which includes a €24 billion domestic surplus last year, bolstered by a €14 billion windfall from the Apple tax case [c2e127e3].
While Calleary emphasized the importance of maintaining a favorable corporate tax rate of 12.5% to attract U.S. investments, S&P's analysis points out that Ireland's reliance on a few multinational corporations in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors could pose risks to its economic stability [686055a4]. As Ireland continues to navigate these complexities, the government remains committed to fostering an environment conducive to both U.S. and Chinese investments, ensuring that they contribute positively to the economy [5e9ea904].
In summary, while Ireland's economic outlook appears strong, it remains vulnerable to shifts in U.S. policy that could impact its export trade and overall growth trajectory [c2e127e3].