Tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States have increased over the past year, with speculations that war could come sooner rather than later. Reports indicate that Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. China's political strategy for unification includes military, economic, informational, legal, and diplomatic components. China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions. Preparations within the PLA would include implementing a PLA-wide stop loss, halting demobilizations of enlisted personnel and officers, and halting most regular training and performing maintenance on major equipment. China would also place forces on alert, establish field hospitals, and order national mobilization. The American intelligence community would likely release information publicly if they saw signs of China preparing for war. Strategic surprise would be unlikely due to the scale of the undertaking. Any invasion of Taiwan would be a national, all-of-regime undertaking for a war potentially lasting years [8000976d].
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China could potentially isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and make the democratic island succumb to the will of Beijing's ruling Communist Party without ever firing a shot. The report suggests that China could use 'gray zone' tactics, such as a quarantine, to cut off access to Taiwan's ports and vital supplies. The China Coast Guard, maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could initiate a full or partial quarantine, while the naval, air, and ground components of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would play auxiliary roles. The report warns that a quarantine would make it difficult for the United States and other democracies to counter China's actions. China's escalating gray zone tactics have been on display in recent clashes with the Philippines in the South China Sea. The report notes that a quarantine led by China's coast guard is not a declaration of war and would put the US in a difficult position, as it is legally required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. However, if the US intervened in what China claims is a law enforcement operation, it could be seen as initiating military hostilities. The report also highlights the economic repercussions of a quarantine on Taiwan, as it is a prominent industrialized economy and a crucial node in global supply chains. Additionally, a quarantine could push Taiwan's government to declare independence, potentially leading to armed conflict. Despite the plausibility of a quarantine, analysts raise doubts about China's ability to sustain the effort and handle possible international reactions. They also note that a limited quarantine might result in a rally around the flag effect and push Taiwan's government to escalate the situation or declare independence [16cf7982].
A recent survey conducted by ChinaPower Project sought the opinions of 64 leading experts on China's approach to Taiwan. The survey found that most experts believe China lacks a coherent strategy for unification with Taiwan and is willing to wait indefinitely. Only 10% of respondents think Beijing's approach is to push for unification 'at the earliest possible opportunity.' The survey also revealed that 44% of respondents believe China has set a hard deadline to achieve unification by 2049, while 42% believe Beijing is willing to wait indefinitely. Experts do not believe that China's recent military exercises around Taiwan indicate an accelerated timeline for using force against Taiwan [bafd278d].
The survey also explored how Chinese leader Xi Jinping's third term will shape China's approach to Taiwan. Most experts believe Xi will prioritize making progress toward peaceful unification and reject the idea that China must act against Taiwan by 2027. The survey also assessed the risks of military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, with experts believing that a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan is possible but unlikely. Experts also believe that China would immediately invade if Taiwan declared independence [bafd278d].
The survey provides valuable insights into the thinking of experts on China's approach to Taiwan and the potential risks and dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. It highlights the lack of a coherent strategy for unification, China's willingness to wait indefinitely, and the belief that military force is not imminent. The survey also emphasizes the importance of understanding Xi Jinping's priorities and the risks associated with potential military contingencies and Taiwan's declaration of independence [bafd278d].
China's armed forces could easily isolate Taiwan, damaging its economy and forcing it to fall under the control of China, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) [2d7d0b24]. The report suggests that China may use a 'quarantine' tactic, initiating a blockade of Taiwan under the guise of a pandemic, cutting off vital supplies and suspending economic activity. This tactic would not be considered a blockade or a declaration of war, putting the US in a difficult position to intervene. China considers Taiwan its territory and has increased pressure on the island in recent years. Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned that the Taiwan issue is a red line for Beijing [2d7d0b24].
China could take control of Taiwan without a direct invasion by isolating the island, crippling its economy, and forcing it to succumb to Beijing's will through 'gray zone' tactics, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. The report suggests that China could employ its coast guard, maritime militia, and other agencies to initiate a quarantine of Taiwan, cutting off access to Taiwanese ports and vital supplies. This strategy could put Taiwan or its supporters, like the United States, in the position of initiating military conflict to preserve Taiwan's autonomy. However, maintaining a quarantine would be expensive and time-consuming for China, and it could have global economic repercussions given Taiwan's role in the global supply chain. The report also highlights that the United States is legally required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, including defensive weaponry, under the Taiwan Relations Act [9dc9f1d3].
China's military could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and make the democratic island succumb to the will of Beijing's ruling Communist Party without ever firing a shot, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) [2ed08176].
China's increasing pressure on Taiwan has raised fears of an invasion, but the CSIS report highlights alternative options for Beijing to coerce or annex Taiwan. The report notes that a quarantine is a law enforcement-led operation, not a declaration of war, and would put the US in a difficult position if it intervened. Taiwan's coast guard lacks the numbers to push back a quarantine effort. The report concludes that even limited quarantine actions by China could have a significant economic impact on Taiwan [2ed08176].
Chinese President Xi Jinping's claim that the US is goading China to invade Taiwan reflects long-established and widely held Chinese elite perceptions of US motives in the 'Taiwan question.' Chinese writings on this theme draw from a shared narrative that Washington is 'using Taiwan to contain China.' The notion gained traction after the third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and has become prevalent in recent years. Chinese views suggest that a war in the Taiwan Strait would benefit Washington's containment strategy. There are fears that an invasion of Taiwan would lead to severe economic and technological containment measures against China. Chinese writings also suggest that Washington might want a war over Taiwan to play out as a 'proxy war' to contain China's rise. The rhetoric from both sides is damaging strategic trust and increasing security anxieties in the region. To avoid conflict, it is crucial for the US and China to engage in regular high-level dialogue and encourage people-to-people contact to develop a better understanding of each other's intentions [4d1d0f77].