India's foreign policy has undergone significant transformations since its inception in 1947, when it adopted a non-aligned stance that leaned towards the Soviet Union while maintaining cold relations with the United States. However, in the 21st century, India has shifted its approach, aligning more closely with the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, reflecting a strategic pivot in its international relations. [115ece61]
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, India has emphasized a policy of 'strategic autonomy,' which aims to pursue national interests independently while navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. This approach has allowed India to strengthen its ties with major powers, including the United States and Russia, while also participating actively in multilateral organizations such as BRICS, SCO, and the Quad. [c309a715][115ece61]
A significant shift in India's arms procurement has been noted, with imports from Russia dropping to 36% in 2023 from 76% in 2009. This change marks a notable policy shift as India increasingly turns to Western suppliers for military technology. Since 2018, India has signed contracts worth nearly $20 billion for US-made defense products, including a recent $3 billion deal for 31 long-range drones approved in October 2023. The joint development of helicopters and fighter jets with Russia has been shelved, and proposals to lease a nuclear submarine from Russia are unlikely to proceed. Despite this pivot, India still relies on Russia for spare parts and nuclear capabilities, indicating a complex relationship. [d5019d60]
Ambassador Sujan Chinoy recently identified seven critical factors impacting India's national security, referred to as the 'seven Ts': trade, technology, territorial disputes, terrorism, tenets, transparency, and trust. These elements are crucial as India emerges as a global leader amid ongoing global turmoil, particularly in light of the weakened post-1945 world order. [14feaf98]
Despite these advancements, India faces challenges in its foreign relations, particularly with China and Pakistan. The relationship with China remains tense, characterized by competitive dynamics despite economic ties. India's posture towards Pakistan is notably hostile, particularly over the Kashmir issue, as it seeks to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. [115ece61]
Jaishankar's recent diplomatic efforts have focused on enhancing India's global standing and fostering economic growth, while also addressing security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region. The ongoing war in Ukraine has further complicated India's external environment, as it navigates its reliance on Russian military support amidst Western sanctions. [c309a715][9f846b12]
India's economy, now the fifth largest globally, plays a crucial role in bolstering its military capabilities and trade relations. However, divisive nationalism and internal economic issues have tarnished India's international image, raising questions about the effectiveness of its 'Neighbourhood First' policy, which has struggled to foster cooperation with South Asian neighbors. [115ece61][5576104e]
As India continues to assert its presence on the global stage, it must balance its strategic autonomy with the need for collaborative relationships. The reappointment of Jaishankar signals a commitment to an assertive foreign policy that prioritizes India's national interests while engaging with a multipolar world. [664ebee9][f45a2f1a]
India's G20 Presidency, held since December 2022, has been pivotal in promoting the philosophy of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,' which emphasizes global unity. Initiatives such as the Global Biofuels Alliance and Digital Public Infrastructure showcase India's commitment to addressing global challenges. [14feaf98]
Recent analyses highlight that India's foreign policy, while robust, needs to allow South Asian countries to exercise their own strategic autonomy. The unresolved Kashmir dispute and narratives surrounding cross-border terrorism continue to affect India-Pakistan relations, suggesting that a less overbearing approach could enhance India's dominance in South Asia. [8d347a90]
In a recent analysis, Lt Gen Vijay Singh (Retd) discussed the strategic dilemma faced by the United States regarding India amidst the rise of China and Russia. The US views India as essential to counterbalance these powers but fears that India's growth could challenge US dominance. Singh notes that India's historical ties with Russia complicate US interests, leading to concerns that the US may consider options to control India's growth or weaken it through covert actions. However, India prioritizes its strategic autonomy and economic independence, suggesting that a stronger India aligned with democratic values could naturally gravitate towards the US. [9d9c1fb9]
In the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has positioned itself as a potential peace broker, albeit with significant challenges. President Zelensky has expressed hope that India can influence Russia to reduce its oil purchases, as India has become one of Russia's two largest oil buyers since the invasion in 2022. Despite paying $80 per barrel for Russian oil—30% above the G7 price cap—India has abstained from UN resolutions condemning Russia and has not presented a peace plan for Ukraine. Modi has referred to Russia as India's 'all-weather friend,' and India continues to supply dual-use technology to Russia, complicating its diplomatic stance. The US has sanctioned over 19 Indian companies for aiding Russia, highlighting India's dependency on Russian military and oil supplies, which limits its real clout over Moscow. [19a6541d]
In summary, India's foreign policy reflects a complex interplay of strategic autonomy, economic ambitions, and regional dynamics. As it navigates these challenges, India aims to enhance its global influence while addressing the pressing issues of nationalism and regional cooperation, ultimately striving for a developed 'Vikasit Bharat' by mid-century. [dc7f68e0]