The swearing-in of Narendra Modi for a historic third consecutive term as India's prime minister sends a strong message of political and economic stability amidst rising geostrategic uncertainty [c9f78152]. India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of its target in the parliamentary election, but Modi secured a third term with the support of smaller parties [3496391b].
Modi's third term is expected to bring a recalibration of India's 'Act East' policy, which aims to strengthen economic and strategic engagement with Southeast Asian nations [c9f78152]. India's foreign policy has moved closer to the West, particularly the United States, Japan, Australia, and the European Union, due to concerns about China's aggressive policy [3496391b].
India's economic outreach to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has faced challenges due to a reluctance to undertake market reforms and liberalize tariffs. The existing trade accord with ASEAN is seen as favoring ASEAN, leading to a trade deficit for India. However, Modi's re-election is likely to give greater importance to the economic imperative and expand economic cooperation agreements with ASEAN. This could include addressing trade imbalances and working towards a more mutually beneficial trade relationship [c9f78152].
On the strategic front, India's efforts as part of the Act East policy have helped bring seven ASEAN members into the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and there are opportunities for extensive maritime collaboration. However, India's level of participation remains constrained by resource limitations and risk aversion. Modi's third term presents an opportunity to scale up the security dimension of India's engagement with ASEAN, including increased collaboration in maritime engagement, joint operations, capacity building, and exports to ASEAN navies. India may also consider establishing strategic maritime hubs or logistics facilities across Southeast Asia [c9f78152].
Economically, India has seen rapid growth under Modi, but wealth distribution remains highly unequal. Modi has launched major projects to modernize India, but the future economic vision remains unclear [3496391b]. India's economic policies will be closely watched as the country navigates the challenges of sustaining growth, reducing inequality, and attracting foreign investment.
Modi's socio-political policies have been authoritarian and Hindu nationalist, but the strength of the opposition will determine if these policies continue. The recent election marked a resurgence of democracy, prompting Modi to reconsider his hardline policies and opt for more cautious approaches [4e4df253]. The changing political landscape, with coalition governance and a stronger opposition, may lead to more pragmatic policies [4e4df253].
Climate change was not a major agenda in the recent elections, but as India faces the impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events and rising sea levels, it will need to address this issue in its post-election future. The global community will also be watching India's stance on climate change, as it is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters [3496391b].
In summary, Modi's third term as India's prime minister opens up new possibilities for closer India-ASEAN and India-China relations. The recalibration of India's Act East policy, with a greater emphasis on economic cooperation and security collaboration, could lead to a more balanced and mutually beneficial partnership between India and ASEAN. Additionally, India's evolving political landscape and its deepening alliance with the United States indicate a potential shift towards more pragmatic policies in managing China's influence. This has the potential to reshape the Sino-Indian relationship and contribute to regional stability in the Indo-Pacific [c9f78152, 4e4df253]. However, challenges remain in addressing economic inequality, defining a clear economic vision, and navigating the socio-political landscape in India's post-election future [3496391b].