As India and China engage in a thawing of their historically tense relations, Pakistan observes these developments with a mix of apprehension and frustration, particularly regarding the Kashmir issue. The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 23, 2024, during the 16th BRICS summit, has raised concerns in Islamabad about the implications for its own diplomatic stance [a8883295].
Following an agreement announced on October 21 for disengagement in border areas, which was a response to the deadly clashes in June 2020 that resulted in the deaths of 24 soldiers, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has expressed discontent over India's reluctance to resume diplomatic talks concerning Kashmir [a8883295]. This ongoing conflict remains a significant barrier to dialogue between India and Pakistan, with Modi's government showing little interest in re-engaging with Islamabad [a8883295].
In light of these tensions, Farhan Hanif Siddiqi argues for a new era of engagement between India and Pakistan, emphasizing the importance of dialogue for resolving longstanding issues, particularly Kashmir. He highlights historical instances of cooperation despite rivalry, such as the opening of the Kartarpur Corridor in November 2019, which showcased potential for collaboration [0548a705]. Siddiqi notes that the relations froze after India revoked Kashmir's special status in August 2019, and the subsequent 2019 Pulwama attack led to an Indian airstrike and aerial conflict that required US diplomacy for de-escalation [0548a705].
Moreover, the dynamics of improved China-India relations could complicate Pakistan's geopolitical position. Analysts suggest that India may perceive more benefits in fostering ties with China rather than with Pakistan, which could further isolate Islamabad [a8883295]. Pakistan is also grappling with internal security challenges, including attacks on Chinese nationals within its borders, prompting China's ambassador to Pakistan to criticize the security situation [a8883295]. In response, Pakistan's Foreign Office has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring the safety of Chinese citizens [a8883295].
Siddiqi points out that while trade between India and Pakistan has plummeted since 2019, indirect trade continues, indicating that economic ties can still be nurtured [0548a705]. He emphasizes that leadership prioritizing a long-term vision is essential for future engagement, as evidenced by the ceasefire agreement in 2021 that has reduced hostilities [0548a705]. As the situation unfolds, it appears that the thaw in China-India relations is unlikely to have a direct impact on the long-standing tensions between Pakistan and India, particularly regarding Kashmir [a8883295].