Chinese authorities have resumed publishing youth unemployment data, revealing a jobless rate of 14.9% for individuals aged 16 to 24 in December. This marks the first release of such data since June of the previous year. The new calculation method excludes students from the unemployment rate, and the change in methodology was implemented after youth unemployment surged to 21.3% in June. The decision to resume publishing youth jobless data reflects the Chinese government's efforts to address the issue of youth unemployment and boost job creation amidst an economic slowdown. China's overall urban unemployment rate in December was 5.1%. With the number of university graduates expected to reach a record high of 11.79 million this year, there is increasing pressure to create more job opportunities and improve employment prospects for young people.
According to a report by Newsweek, experts argue that China's new methodology for reporting youth unemployment data is seen as a cover-up. The government removed students from the sample, causing a drop in the reported unemployment rate. The Chinese statistics bureau reported that unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds was 14.9% in December, an improvement from 21.3% in June. However, experts argue that the exclusion of certain groups, such as those working as little as one hour per week and those who have given up on job prospects, casts doubt on the accuracy of the data. The long-term challenges facing China's economy include an aging workforce, declining foreign investment, a property market slump, and lower global demand for exports. The new reporting methodology benefits the Chinese Communist Party leadership and supports their narrative of China's economy. However, experts argue that simply making statistics more patriotic will not help the economy recover its lost momentum. The most effective way to stimulate the economy would be to put money in the hands of those most likely to spend it, such as Gen Z. Other factors affecting young jobseekers include the crackdown on big tech and private education. The Chinese government announced plans to stabilize unemployment, including opening up internships and offering subsidies to firms that hire registered unemployed individuals in the 16 to 24 age bracket.
China's state-backed media outlet, the Global Times, is attempting to change the narrative surrounding China's high youth unemployment rate. The outlet published an article titled 'Chinese youths actively seek employment, defying Western media smears,' featuring interviews with young Chinese who have found success in the country's competitive job market. However, the article omitted the Chinese government's employment data for young people specifically, which showed a youth unemployment rate of 14.9 percent in December. The report also excluded major demographics such as people living in rural areas and those who had given up looking for a job. China's reported unemployment rate of 5.1 percent for December only includes city-dwellers who have registered as unemployed. Experts have criticized the methodology used, stating that it does not accord with international standards for calibrating the unemployment rate. Despite the state media's attempt to downplay the issue, China's high youth unemployment rate remains a significant challenge for the country's economy.
In India, the unemployment rate disproportionately affects young people, with a low labor force participation rate of 42% for those aged 15-29. India expects about 13 million young people to enter the job market this year. The youth unemployment rate in India is 18%, higher than its neighbors. Indian youths are seeking jobs in conflict zones and war zones, and Indians made up the third-largest illegal immigrant population in the US in 2021. The lack of jobs and toxic work environments in China also leave young graduates vulnerable. China's youth unemployment issues pose a political risk and could disrupt global supply chains. Both China and India have pressures of traditional work culture, with long working hours and youth burnout. Policymakers should offer greater incentives to attract foreign investment. If the unemployment crisis is not resolved, it may lead to social unrest. Young people in China and India face uncertainty and stress in finding their first job [47c23e94].
In contrast, Hong Kong's job market has remained relatively stable. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong remained at 2.9% in December 2023 - February 2024, the same as the previous period. The underemployment rate also remained unchanged at 1%. The labour force and total employment both saw declines, decreasing by 2,700 and 2,300 respectively. The number of unemployed persons stayed low at 102,300. The unemployment rates of various sectors showed only small changes compared to the previous three-month period. The Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Chris Sun, expects the labour market to stay tight in the near term with continued economic growth [fa34259d].
Hong Kong’s public service departments have almost 20,000 vacancies, with some having up to 20 per cent or more of posts unfilled. The Civil Service Bureau revealed that RTHK, the city’s public broadcaster, had the highest vacancy rate at 23.8 per cent, with 175 posts unfilled. The police force had the highest number of jobs available, with 6,837 vacancies, which is 17.9 per cent of its total establishment. The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department registered a 20 per cent staff shortfall with 460 vacancies. The Education Bureau recorded a 15.6 per cent vacancy rate with 983 posts unfilled. The bureau stated that there were 19,744 vacancies, a 10.3 per cent vacancy rate, in November last year. An average of 5,100 civil servants are expected to retire every year over the next five financial years. The government will consider re-evaluating organizational structures if there are fundamental changes in job nature, tasks, and complexity, or if there are difficulties in recruitment and retention of talents. Over the 2022-23 and 2021-22 financial years, almost 4,000 civil servants from more than 200 departments resigned. The bureau explained that higher turnover rates in some departments were due to smaller departments with a small number of personnel leaving, such as retiring. Between 2018-19 and 2022-23, 1,124 public servants were punished with formal disciplinary action, including 524 cases involving serious misconduct. There were also 600 cases involving criminal convictions that required formal disciplinary action. Another 1,995 civil servants were disciplined for minor misconduct during the same period [d2023632].