The Morrison Government is facing criticism for not including claw-back provisions in its 'JobGiver' submarines program, similar to the criticism it received for the JobKeeper program. The AUKUS submarine program is estimated to cost $368 billion and will create around 20,000 direct jobs over the next 30 years. Australians will contribute almost $4.7 billion in taxpayer's money to grow the US submarine industrial base. The details of the financial agreement between Australia and the US have been denied through a FOI request. There is concern that there is no clawback provision in the agreement, similar to the JobKeeper program. The risk of the US not delivering a submarine to Australia is high, as the US industrial base is not building enough submarines for its own needs. The UK 'JobGiver' payment also poses risks, as the UK reliably delivers submarines that are late and over budget. The author suggests that the 'JobGiver' money going to the US will not go back into the Australian economy. The article raises concerns about the lack of clawback provisions and the potential risks of the AUKUS program.
In a recent statement at the Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed doubt about the United States' ability to assist South Korea in building nuclear-powered submarines. Austin cited the US's current commitments under the AUKUS pact with Britain and Australia as the reason for this doubt. The AUKUS pact, signed in 2021, involves sharing nuclear-powered submarine technology and selling at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. While other allies, including South Korea, have expressed interest in participating, Austin stated that it would be challenging for the US to accommodate a direct request from South Korea for assistance in obtaining nuclear submarines. The AUKUS pact aims to counter China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region and has generated interest from countries like New Zealand and Japan for technology-sharing opportunities. [687d3caf]
This development has raised questions about South Korea's plans to develop its own nuclear-powered submarines. The country has been seeking to enhance its naval capabilities and has expressed interest in acquiring nuclear submarines. However, the US's current limitations in providing assistance may impact South Korea's plans. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines would significantly enhance South Korea's maritime defense capabilities and potentially deter North Korea's submarine activities. It remains to be seen how South Korea will proceed in light of the US's doubts about providing assistance. [687d3caf]
The AUKUS pact responds to perceptions of new threats while remaining faithful to Australia’s two foundational defence preoccupations: anxiety about defending its mainland with a small population, and the need to cleave to an alliance partner. The AUKUS plan outlines the close collaboration between Australia, Britain, and the United States to provide Australia with access to nuclear-powered submarines, and to establish close triangular collaboration on research and development of a range of next-generation defence technologies, including cyber, AI, quantum, and hypersonic capabilities. The idea for AUKUS was an Australian one, born from a rising perception that the Indo-Pacific region is becoming more strategically volatile. China’s development and militarisation of islands in the South China Sea, concerns over espionage and influence operations in Australia, and more recently Beijing’s leveraging of economic coercion against Australia have decisively raised Australians’ threat perceptions. The colossal cost of AUKUS to Australia – conservatively estimated at AU$368 billion (US$245.7 billion) – is justified according to the range and speed of nuclear propulsion technology. At the heart of AUKUS is an audacious military technology play, and this draws on a third strategic tradition: a reliance on technology to make up for the modest size of Australia’s armed forces. The pact will potentially make Australia one of just seven countries to deploy nuclear-propelled submarines. The pact has also attracted a growing chorus of critics, many of whom also draw on long traditions of Australian thinking about defence. These are very large uncertainties, putting Australia’s alliance relationships at the greatest risk they have ever faced. Whether ANZUS can survive the failure of AUKUS appears to be a question that few within the Australian government, or outside it, have thought to ask. [a90f33aa]