Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius dismisses comparisons of the 2020s to other eras made by Deutsche Bank and UBS. Hatzius argues that historical analogies are often too simplistic and that history never repeats exactly. He warns against using historical comparisons as a roadmap for investment or economic strategies. Goldman Sachs predicts a lower likelihood of a recession in the next year compared to the rest of the market. Hatzius expects the market to be strengthened by strong performances in mega-cap tech stocks and by eventual cuts to the base rate by the Fed. He rejects the doom and gloom narrative proposed by Deutsche Bank and suggests that the late 1910s era could hold some useful inspiration. Hatzius also mentions the post-1918 flu period as having some relevant elements, although there is limited economic data from that time. He cautions against overstating the extent to which one period can be used as a blueprint.
Source: [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2023/11/17/goldman-sachs-2024-outlook-comparisons-economic-eras/)