On January 30, 2025, global arabica coffee prices surged to record highs, exceeding US$3.60 per pound. This increase is largely attributed to limited global coffee supplies and the ongoing impact of weather-related challenges in major coffee-producing regions. Arabica futures reached US$3.6945 per pound before closing at US$3.6655, while robusta coffee prices also rose significantly to US$5,609 per tonne [82d50506].
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has reportedly sold between 70% to 80% of its current arabica harvest. However, the upcoming crop is expected to be 4.4% smaller than last year's, further tightening supply in the global market [82d50506]. Current buffer stocks in Brazil are estimated at around 500,000 bags, which may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand [82d50506].
In addition to Brazil's challenges, India's coffee exports are projected to decline by over 10% in 2025, compounding the supply issues faced by the global coffee market [82d50506]. Brazilian farmers are now prioritizing local sales, which could further limit the volume available for export. This situation has led to a fourth consecutive deficit in the global coffee market, raising concerns among traders and consumers alike [82d50506].
The surge in coffee prices reflects broader economic trends, with commodities experiencing volatility due to various factors including climate change, supply chain disruptions, and changing consumer preferences. As the coffee market navigates these challenges, stakeholders are closely monitoring developments that could impact future pricing and availability [82d50506].