Factors Influencing Dairy Exports and Global Markets in 2024

Private sector exports in Qatar reached QR15.2bn in the first half of 2023, according to a report by the Qatar Chamber [9725b5ce]. This represents a 9% decline compared to the same period in 2022. The report also highlighted the performance of different commodities, with essential and industrial oils experiencing a 146% increase in exports, while aluminum exports declined by 67%. The report provided information on the destinations of Qatar's private sector exports, with China being the top country of destination, followed by India and Oman. The report also mentioned the economic blocs and groupings that received Qatar's exports, with the 22-Asian countries bloc being the largest recipient. Overall, the report showed a decrease in private sector exports, but also highlighted some sectors that experienced growth.

In a separate development, export numbers from New Zealand confirm a slump in Chinese demand for dairy [187c2e26]. The total value of goods exported to China in the year ended September 2023 was $19.3b, a 31% year-on-year drop in value took dairy exports down to NZ$459 million. Slower global demand and continued subdued trade with China could spell trouble for exports.

The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) has identified five key factors that will determine the direction of U.S. dairy exports and global markets in 2024 [181066be]. The first factor is China, which remains the largest dairy importer in the world but is facing economic challenges that may impact dairy consumption growth. The second factor is Mexico, which saw record-high U.S. dairy exports in 2023 due to strong economic performance and increased consumer confidence. However, the IMF predicts a slowdown in Mexico's GDP growth in 2024, which may affect dairy demand. The third factor is the global economy, which needs to pick up for dairy exports to rebound. The IMF forecasts modest global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, with easing inflation supporting increased consumer demand. The fourth factor is milk production in Europe and New Zealand, which will impact U.S. export performance. European milk production growth slowed in 2023 after a period of expansion, while New Zealand's output relies on weather conditions. The fifth factor is the financial well-being of U.S. dairy farmers, as input costs and market uncertainty may limit milk production expansion. Overall, the USDEC expects China to have a flat year of imports, Mexico to see moderate import growth, the global economy to improve, European and New Zealand milk production to have modest growth, and U.S. dairy farmers to face challenges in expanding production.