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Geomagnetic Storms: Navigating Risks in Aviation

2024-10-12 11:45:24.431000

On July 14, 2024, a cluster of sunspots designated as AR 3738 on the Sun fired off a series of M-class flares before erupting in an X1.2 flare, marking the first X-class solar flare in over a month. X-class flares are the highest category of solar flares and are measured by the intensity of their X-rays on a scale that goes through the letters A, B, C, M, and X. The recent flare was not associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) and is not expected to cause geomagnetic storming on Earth. However, the Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) has forecasted minor to moderate solar activity and a chance for minor geomagnetic storming between July 14 and 16. Solar cycles, which are well-understood 11-year cycles of sunspots, indicate that the ongoing Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak towards the end of this year or the start of the next [98b6ce48].

The recent X1.2 solar flare from the Sun highlights the ongoing activity and intensity of solar flares. Solar flares, especially X-class flares, can have significant impacts on space weather and Earth's technological systems. While this particular flare is not expected to cause geomagnetic storming, it serves as a reminder of the importance of monitoring and understanding solar activity for better preparation and mitigation strategies [8b35db46], [35aedcd1], [98b6ce48].

In a separate incident, a solar flare from the sun caused radiation in Australia and Japan. The solar flare was detected on August 20, 2021, and it resulted in a radiation storm that caused disruptions to radio communications and satellite navigation systems. The radiation levels reached their peak on August 22, 2021. The Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) issued a warning to aircraft crews and passengers about the increased radiation levels. The Japan Meteorological Agency also issued a warning to aircraft crews and passengers. The solar flare was classified as an X1.5-class flare, which is considered moderate in strength [ddda41e7].

Most recently, on October 12, 2024, a Cathay Pacific flight from New York to Hong Kong was diverted due to a geomagnetic storm, taking 17 hours and 17 minutes—1 hour and 42 minutes longer than expected. Despite this incident, the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association stated that there is minimal risk to planes if they have enough fuel. Geomagnetic storms can affect navigation systems, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors solar activity closely. The Hong Kong Observatory has not issued any space weather forecasts, and local meteorologists have noted that such storms rarely impact Hong Kong. However, Johnny Ng Kit-chong has suggested that public warnings should be issued during significant solar events to ensure passenger safety [8a24e365].

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