As East Asia grapples with a significant demographic crisis, Hong Kong's low birth rate is prompting the government to take bold steps to attract talent from mainland China. With South Korea's fertility rate plummeting to 0.72 births per woman, and Hong Kong's birth rate among the lowest globally, the region faces pressing challenges [a5a9d7ae]. A recent survey by the Society for the Protection of Children revealed that only 31% of first-time mothers in Hong Kong aged 18-45 wish to have a second child, primarily due to financial burdens and parenting stress [8a17a9a3].
In response to these demographic challenges, Chief Executive John Lee announced plans to admit over 1 million mainland Chinese by 2046 during a key policy address in October 2024. This initiative aims to attract high-caliber talent and ease entry restrictions for mainland university graduates, reflecting a strategic shift to bolster the workforce amid declining birth rates and a talent exodus [2b6485e6].
The education sector is already feeling the impact of declining birth rates, with 70 Primary One classes closing across 66 schools this year due to a significant drop in student enrollment [ca1a4059]. Secretary for Education Christine Choi Yuk-lin anticipates further school closures in the coming years as the number of births continues to decline, with only 32,500 children born in 2022 [ca1a4059].
In China, the situation is even more dire. In 2023, the number of kindergartens in China fell by over 5% to 274,400, with enrollment dropping by 11.55%, or 5.35 million children, to 40.9 million [0124e2ae]. The fertility rate in China dropped to 1.09 in 2022 and is estimated to be below 1.0 in 2023, with only 9 million births recorded, the lowest since 1949 [0124e2ae]. Shanghai's fertility rate has plummeted to 0.6 [0124e2ae].
Despite these challenges, some experts argue that a stable low birth rate could yield unexpected benefits. Lucas Lee and Yu Mei Mei, writing in the South China Morning Post, suggest that less competition for resources and a reduced impact on climate change could be positive outcomes of a lower population growth [c6a98cbe]. They emphasize the need to shift focus from merely increasing birth rates to addressing the implications of a shrinking workforce and an aging population. Attracting overseas talent is seen as a potential solution to mitigate staffing shortages, although the effectiveness of initiatives like the Top Talent Pass Scheme is questioned due to high living costs and language barriers [c6a98cbe].
In China, economic stagnation and high costs deter families from having more children, with a survey in Ningbo revealing that nearly half of single women prefer one child, over a third do not want children, and 56% view marriage as optional [0124e2ae]. Furthermore, over 30% of families need childcare, but only 5.5% are enrolled in nurseries, leading many kindergartens to convert into elderly care centers [0124e2ae].
Moreover, the demographic shift raises concerns about public safety, particularly regarding elderly drivers. As the population ages, age-related health issues may impair driving abilities, leading to increased risks on the roads [c6a98cbe].
As Hong Kong navigates its demographic challenges, a holistic review of the child-raising environment and the potential benefits of a stable low birth rate could pave the way for innovative solutions that support families and enhance community resilience [8a17a9a3]. The government's proactive immigration policy may help stabilize the population and address workforce shortages, ultimately shaping the future of Hong Kong's demographic landscape [2b6485e6].