In an article by Herman VanGenderen for Grainews, the accuracy of economic and market predictions for 2023 is evaluated. VanGenderen correctly predicted that there would be no recession in 2023, citing the early stage of the interest rate tightening cycle and the strong financial position of the U.S. consumer. He also accurately predicted that inflation would come down while interest rates would continue to rise slightly. However, VanGenderen's prediction of a significant recovery in oil prices did not materialize. He also overestimated the performance of the TSX, which only increased by 4.8%. Despite these misses, VanGenderen's boldest prediction that the S&P 500 would increase by 15-20% turned out to be accurate, as the index actually increased by 20.3%. This highlights the inaccuracy of professional market prognosticators who predicted a decline in the S&P 500. Overall, VanGenderen's predictions were more accurate than those of the financial industry.
Meanwhile, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast, Inc., is being honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023. The award, judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation, recognizes Cosgrove's accurate forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. Cosgrove predicted a mild recession with more disinflation and at least a 100 basis points decline in the funds rate. The award ceremony will feature keynote remarks on the state of the economy by Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and two-time winner of the Klein Award. The event will take place on Wednesday, March 6 at the University Club of Tempe, Arizona, with a livestream available for the public to view.
These evaluations of economic and market predictions for 2023 provide valuable insights into the accuracy of forecasting and the lessons learned from both VanGenderen and Cosgrove.
In a separate article by John Dorfman for TribLIVE, the 22nd Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT) is announced. Contestants are invited to predict six economic variables for the calendar year, with the winner receiving a trophy, plaque, or certificate. In 2023, six entrants tied for first place, all predicting a recession that did not occur. This year, all six winners expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2024. The entry rules for the next derby are provided, and contestants must answer six questions and submit their entry by midnight on March 15. The questions cover topics such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, oil prices, retail sales, and unemployment rates. The winners of the 20th Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent are also mentioned, with David Debo, Lawrence Weiner, John Benedict, Jim Koenig, Lawrence Ladenberg, and Michael Nicosia sharing the gold medal. Each winner provides their thoughts on the economy and their predictions for 2024. This adds another perspective to the evaluation of economic predictions and highlights the ongoing interest in economic forecasting.
The evaluations of VanGenderen, Cosgrove, and the DEFT provide a comprehensive look at the accuracy of economic predictions and the lessons learned from different forecasters.