In a recent announcement, Stephen Stanley, the chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, LLC, has been awarded the 2024 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy. This prestigious award, presented by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, recognizes Stanley's accurate forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter. Stanley has been with Santander since March 2010 and holds a BA from Washington and Lee University and an MA from the University of Chicago. His predictions indicate that the U.S. economy is expected to skirt a recession and return to solid growth by late 2025. The award ceremony is scheduled for October 15, 2024, at the University Club of New York, where Stanley will be honored for his contributions to economic forecasting [d0c6eaa0].
This recognition comes amidst a broader evaluation of economic predictions for 2023. Herman VanGenderen, in an article for Grainews, highlighted his accurate forecasts, including the prediction that there would be no recession in 2023, despite some missteps regarding oil prices and the TSX performance. His bold prediction of a 15-20% increase in the S&P 500 was spot on, as the index rose by 20.3%, contrasting with many professionals who anticipated a decline [b8351b33].
Additionally, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast, Inc., was also honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023. Cosgrove's predictions included a mild recession and a significant decline in the funds rate, showcasing his expertise in economic forecasting. The award ceremony will feature keynote remarks from Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, further emphasizing the importance of accurate economic predictions [b8351b33].
Moreover, the 22nd Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT) revealed that six entrants tied for first place in 2023, all incorrectly predicting a recession that did not occur. However, all six winners expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2024, demonstrating the evolving nature of economic forecasting and the challenges forecasters face [b8351b33].
The recent accolades for Stanley, along with the evaluations of VanGenderen and Cosgrove, provide a comprehensive view of the landscape of economic predictions and the importance of accuracy in this field.