The Changing Landscape of US Holiday Sales

2023-11-23 07:00:29.961000

The holiday season is fast approaching, but there are signs of a cooldown in economic activity. Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, analyzes various sectors of the US economy to gauge its health. The transportation, small caps, and retail sectors are all showing signs of slowing down. The Russell 2000 index, considered a barometer of the US economy, has been on a losing streak. Conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are also contributing to cooling investor appetites. Industrial manufacturing and transportation sectors are experiencing a slowdown, and retailers are starting to struggle due to inflation and high interest rates. However, there is still hope that retail sales could save the holidays, as consumers with pandemic-era savings might continue to spend. Despite financial pressures, experts predict that consumers will still spend on holiday shopping, although they may purchase fewer gifts due to rising prices. The holiday shopping window is also shortening, with shoppers saving a significant portion of their budget for the last two weeks in November. Retailers are expected to offer big discounts, especially during Cyber Week. Online shopping is projected to grow, but the labor market for holiday hires is cooler this year. However, e-commerce and its supporting industries are experiencing high demand for workers. Despite uncertainties, holiday shopping is expected to be relatively normal as consumers continue to prioritize spending. On the other hand, there is a decline in consumer spending on big-ticket purchases. Companies in various industries, such as Whirlpool, Harley-Davidson, and Align Technology, have reported weaker demand. This trend is not limited to durable goods, as pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie are also experiencing missed sales estimates. The divergence between consumer spending and economic data may be attributed to waning confidence in the economy, concerns about a government shutdown, and ongoing conflicts. Even companies in the boating industry, such as Marine Products Corp., Brunswick Corp., and Polaris Inc., have seen declines in revenue. The decline in consumer spending on big purchases could have negative implications for the economy. Additionally, a new report shows that high-income consumers account for a significant portion of all consumer spending, and their spending may slow down as the post-Covid recovery progresses. Despite these challenges, consumer spending remains strong in certain sectors, such as sporting equipment, clothing, furniture, and restaurant meals. While there are concerns about financial strain during the holiday season, some experts remain optimistic about holiday spending. Overall, the landscape of US holiday sales is changing, with various economic factors influencing consumer behavior and market sentiment.

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