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G7 to Discuss Global Trade Risks and Frozen Russian Assets After US Tariffs on China

2024-05-14 13:54:14.627000

China and Russia have lashed out at the G7 for what they perceive as an attempt to contain their influence and power. The G7, consisting of the world's major advanced economies, has been criticized by China and Russia for its efforts to limit their global reach [1fa34bc1]. Both countries view this as a form of double containment, with the G7 trying to restrict their economic and political influence on the international stage [1fa34bc1]. This criticism highlights the growing tensions between the G7 and China-Russia alliance, as well as the shifting dynamics of global power [1fa34bc1].

The G7's attempt to contain China and Russia can be seen as a response to their increasing assertiveness and influence in various regions. China's Belt and Road Initiative and Russia's military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have raised concerns among G7 members about their intentions and impact on global stability [1fa34bc1]. The G7's efforts to limit their influence can be seen as a way to maintain their own dominance and protect their interests [1fa34bc1]. However, China and Russia argue that they have the right to pursue their own interests and that the G7's attempts to contain them are unjustified and counterproductive [1fa34bc1].

The criticism from China and Russia also reflects their growing confidence and assertiveness on the global stage. Both countries have been pushing back against Western dominance and seeking to assert their own influence and power. This has led to increased tensions and competition between China, Russia, and the G7 countries [1fa34bc1]. The G7's attempt to contain China and Russia can be seen as a response to this assertiveness and a way to maintain their own influence and power [1fa34bc1]. However, it is unclear how effective these containment efforts will be, as China and Russia continue to expand their influence and seek new alliances and partnerships [1fa34bc1].

The Group of Seven (G7) major democracies meeting in Italy next week will discuss the risk of fragmentation in global trade after "very tough" tariffs imposed by the United States against China [301c0af2]. Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said that the world as we have known it is finishing and a trade war is underway which reflects geopolitical tensions [301c0af2]. The G7 finance ministers will also discuss how to use frozen Russian assets seized after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine [301c0af2]. US President Joe Biden unveiled a bundle of steep tariff increases on Chinese imports, including electric vehicle batteries, computer chips, and medical products [301c0af2].

A research report has determined that mainland China and G7 countries could do severe economic harm to each other in the event of escalation over Taiwan [2768e1d0]. The report states that if the G7 enacts sanctions against China, Beijing can restrict exports of 'critical goods' and the activity of foreign investors. Export restrictions, while costly, would be among the 'most impactful economic statecraft tools'. In a 'higher-escalation scenario' of G7-wide sanctions, about $358 billion in G7 exports to the mainland 'could be at risk' as a consequence of imposing those measures as well as projected reprisals. Over 100 million jobs in the mainland depend on foreign final demand, with nearly 45 million premised on demand from G7 countries. The mainland would try to divide the G7, stop any 'cohesive' responses outside the G7, and leverage yuan internationalisation to wriggle out of the worst outcomes related to sanctions [2768e1d0].

China's response to potential sanctions from G7 nations in the event of an escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait could put hundreds of billions of exports to its economy at risk, according to a report from Radio Free Asia [df3103d5]. In a moderate scenario, more than $79 billion worth of U.S. goods and services exports would be at risk. In a higher-escalation scenario involving G7-wide sanctions against China, around $358 billion in G7 goods exports to China could be at risk. At least $460 billion in G7 assets would be at immediate risk both from G7 economic sanctions and any retaliatory measures by Beijing. China would face high economic and reputational costs from such retaliation, with some 100 million Chinese jobs depending on foreign demand, and 45 million dependent on demand from G7 countries. China may seek to divide the G7 nations in the event of escalatory action against Taiwan. Tariffs would be a key part of any Chinese economic sanctions. China has already started building an international banking payments system to bypass financial sanctions imposed by the United States. China's economy is heavily dependent on international trade and commerce, and an economic sanctions war over Taiwan would be devastating for the Chinese economy. Chinese-owned ports globally could potentially become a point of denial for foreign trade. China has long seen financial security as part of its focus on national security.

In conclusion, the criticism from China and Russia towards the G7's attempt to contain them reflects the growing tensions and competition between these global powers. The G7's efforts to limit their influence can be seen as a response to China and Russia's increasing assertiveness and influence. However, it remains to be seen how effective these containment efforts will be, as China and Russia continue to assert their own influence and seek new alliances and partnerships [1fa34bc1]. The research report also highlights the potential economic harm that could result from an escalation over Taiwan, with both China and the G7 countries at risk of significant economic consequences [2768e1d0]. The upcoming G7 meeting in Italy will also address the risk of fragmentation in global trade and the use of frozen Russian assets seized after the invasion of Ukraine [301c0af2].

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