Retailers are taking a cautious approach to seasonal hiring this year due to concerns about consumer spending during the holiday season. The number of large-scale seasonal hiring plans is the lowest since 2013, reflecting retailers' cautious approach to the holiday season. The National Retail Federation's projections for holiday sales indicate slower growth compared to the previous year, leading retailers to pare back their hiring plans. This reduction in seasonal hiring is driven by mixed messages in the economy, with a resilient labor market, low unemployment rate, falling inflation, and rising wages. However, retailers are worried about the impact of the return of student loan payments and the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise interest rates. They are trying to protect their margins by hiring fewer workers and having less merchandise. More customers are looking for cheaper alternatives or not making purchases at all. Retail sales during November and December are expected to increase by 3 to 4%, down from a 5.4% increase last year. Service spending growth is outpacing goods spending. The job market has recovered from the pandemic, but employers may be holding onto workers to avoid future labor shortages. Despite the scaled-back hiring plans, some retailers are still expected to hire a quarter of a million workers for the holiday rush. However, total retail hirings have been more sluggish this year compared to previous years, potentially affecting holiday season employment. Retailers are also focusing on e-commerce sales, which emphasizes warehouse jobs over traditional retail positions, as they navigate the challenges posed by inflation. The impact of inflation on sales remains a concern for retailers, but they are optimistic about the potential of e-commerce sales to drive overall growth. Overall, retailers are taking a cautious approach to the holiday season due to economic uncertainties.
Holiday hiring data reveals a disparity in demand for workers between the U.S. and the U.K. this Christmas. While the U.K. sees a 30% increase in searches for holiday jobs, big U.S. retailers are hesitant to hire more workers. The U.K.'s short-term hiring lead does not reflect the strength of its economy. The U.S. may have subdued holiday hiring because positions have already been filled on a full-time basis. The NRF expects record spending from U.S. consumers this Christmas, while the U.K. predicts a decrease in spending. The U.S. labor market is expected to continue growing in the new year. The low CPI and higher interest rates in the U.K. have impacted spending. Overall, the U.K.'s job applications are driven by the need to make ends meet, not a strong economy.
In the United States, a specialty music store has had to lay off staff due to changing demand and the end of relief money. The store experienced record sales during the summer as people stayed home and looked for ways to bring joy and learn new instruments. However, with the relief money gone and people back at work, they had already spent money on their hobbies. The store's owners made cuts to labor costs, reduced their marketing budget, and had to let go of some staff members. They are now waiting for customers to return and wondering what they will want to buy. The owners have taken full-time tech jobs in Seattle to support themselves without pulling money from the business. [5aa7b375] [a76ccc2d]
US employers are increasingly seeking part-time workers, raising questions about the stability of the labor market. Demand for full-time workers on job sites has remained flat from January 2022 to May 2024, while advertisements for part-time positions have increased by about 10% over the same period. The level of part-time employment in May 2024 was up 8.9% compared to January 2022, while full-time employment only increased by 1.5% during the same period, according to Labor Department data. This trend in part-time hiring could indicate both employer weakness and strength, highlighting the growing uncertainty in the labor market. Industries such as beauty and wellness, personal care and home health, retail, food preparation and service, and sports were most likely to advertise part-time work. The rise in part-time employment during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009 suggests a similar pattern. The increase in demand for part-time workers may be a response to economic fluctuations and employers' efforts to manage costs and flexibility in their workforce. [7627a984]
Teen employment in the United States is on the rise this summer, with the teen labor force participation rate reaching close to the highest level since 2009. The increase in teen employment is attributed to factors such as the pandemic driving many teens away from working last summer and parents now encouraging their kids to work again. Pay increases are also playing a role in attracting teen workers, with inflation-adjusted median weekly pay for teens ages 16 to 19 growing by 13% from 2019 to 2023 [774113fc].
However, there is still a shortage of lifeguards in the US, with over 300,000 pools closed or operating at limited capacity due to the shortage. New York City, in particular, has struggled to hire lifeguards despite offering bonuses and raising wages. The city has resorted to closing off sections of beaches and pools instead of closing locations entirely. Pay raises for lifeguards have enticed more people to get certified, but the shortage persists due to competition from other industries that do not involve intense training and responsibility for the lives of swimmers [774113fc].